Purdue vs. Miami Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Purdue vs. Miami is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Purdue vs. Miami
When: 12:10 pm ET on Sunday, March 22
Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri
Watch: CBS
Odds for Purdue vs. Miami
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Purdue -7.5 (-118), Miami +7.5 (-102)
Total: Over 149.5 (-110), Under 149.5 (-110)
Purdue vs. Miami Prediction & Preview
Jai Lucas isn’t getting enough love for what he has done with Miami. I know this program has access to NIL funds that other coaches can only dream of, but this team was 15-17 in 2023-24. The wheels then fell off last year, as Miami was 7-24 overall and 3-17 in the ACC. Well, in Year 1 under Lucas, the Hurricanes are back in the NCAA Tournament — and won their opening-round game.
Miami is clearly moving in the right direction, and this team is dangerous. Malik Reneau, Ernest Udeh Jr., and Tre Donaldson were awesome transfer portal additions, and Shelton Henderson is a big-time freshman. However, I do think the Hurricanes season ends with this meeting with the Boilermakers, and there is a chance it gets ugly.
While Lucas did a good job of adding talent in the offseason, he really only has six players he trusts. Purdue is a little deeper than Miami, and that’s significant when you also consider the Boilermakers have the best players on the floor in Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. I also think Purdue’s system is a little more set in stone than Miami’s. This veteran-led Boilermakers team knows exactly how to play, and it’s a style that has proven to be successful. It wasn’t even a week ago that Purdue topped Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament finals, taking home a crown in one of the most competitive conferences in America.
Smith is the guy to really watch here. Miami isn’t a bad defensive team, but the team isn’t great on that end of the floor either. Well, Smith is one of the best floor generals we have seen in the college game in the last decade, and he’s going to generate good looks against this defense. And a lot of those looks could come from 3, as the Hurricanes really struggle to defend the perimeter.
Heading into March Madness, Miami was 267th in the nation in 3PT% Defense (35.4%), which is problematic considering the team also happens to allow opponents to shoot a ton of them (41.1% 3-Point Rate Defense). Purdue is going to eat that up. The Boilermakers shoot 38.5% from 3, which is the 12th-highest mark in the country. They also get up a good number of triples. That’s life with Fletcher Loyer, one of the many lethal Purdue shooters, roaming around on the perimeter.
Of course, it should be noted that the Boilermakers are weak when it comes to 2PT% Defense (53.3% – 245th in NCAA). That’s significant with the Hurricanes being a good team in looking at 2PT% (56.8% – 34th in NCAA). However, Purdue wins that trade-off in being an elite 3-point shooting team against a bad 3-point defense.
I also expect the Boilermakers to ramp things up defensively, as they have done to start the postseason. And overall, I see their postseason experience being big here.
I’ll also note something that could surprise some people: Purdue is 26-14 against the spread in NCAA Tournament games under Matt Painter. The Boilermakers are still searching for their first championship under Painter, but they have been kind to bettors.
Estimated Score: Purdue 76.7, Miami 69.6
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
