Purdue vs. Queens Prediction
In the No. 2 vs. No. 15 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Purdue vs. Queens is the first-round game at 7:35 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Purdue vs. Queens
When: 7:35 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20th
Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO
Watch: truTV
Odds for Purdue vs. Queens
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Purdue -24.5 (-110), Queens +24.5 (-110)
Total: Over 163.5 (-110), Under 163.5 (-110)
Purdue vs. Queens Prediction & Preview
There’s a fun wrinkle to this 2-15 matchup that goes beyond the seedings: Queens University of Charlotte is one of only four programs in history to qualify for the NCAA Tournament in their first year of full Division I eligibility. They couldn’t even play in the Big Dance until this season due to the NCAA’s transitional rules, so Grant Leonard’s squad makes history just by showing up in St. Louis on Friday. That’s a genuinely great story. The basketball reality, though, is a little less romantic.
Matt Painter enters his 11th consecutive NCAA Tournament — we’ll never know about 2020 — riding some serious momentum after his Boilermakers squad knocked off No. 1 Michigan 80-72 to claim the Big Ten Tournament title on Sunday. That’s the kind of statement win that earns you a No. 2 seed and pushes whatever late-season concerns were brewing to the back burner. And there were legitimate concerns. After a 17-1 start, Purdue went 6-7 to close the regular season, a stretch that included a three-game losing streak and four losses in six games, several of them featuring defensive performances that were hard to watch. The team that beat Alabama and crushed Texas Tech in November looked like a different outfit by February.
The thing about Purdue, though, is that the offense never really went anywhere. Braden Smith is set to become the program’s all-time assists leader in his next game, Oscar Cluff has evolved into a genuine interior force, and Trey Kaufman-Renn provides the kind of steady production you want in March. Fletcher Loyer remains a genuine threat to go off from 3 at any moment. The Boilermakers are top-tier in eFG%, 2P%, turnover rate, and offensive rebounding — all the hallmarks of a team that can go on a run. The defense, however, is sitting outside the top 200 in eFG% defense and 2P% defense, and the adjusted metrics only look reasonable because of the strength of schedule. It’s a profile eerily similar to last year’s Purdue squad that made the Sweet 16 before losing 62-60 to Houston — poor defensive efficiency, great offense, one bad defensive game away from elimination.
Queens is an absolutely fascinating offensive team that just can’t guard anybody, which makes this matchup — on paper at least — an interesting one stylistically. Carson Schwieger logged 217 3-point attempts against just 41 attempts from 2 during the regular season and conference tournament. Chris Ashby took 282 from 3 against 41 from 2. This is an offense-first program that ranked in the top 25 in eFG% and top 20 in 2P% offense, which means they can fill it up when the shots are falling. Coach Leonard, known for the loud sweaters as much as the X’s and O’s, has built something genuinely watchable in Charlotte. Their win over Central Arkansas was the 21st of the season and a program record at the Division I level.
The problem is that Queens’ defensive numbers land somewhere in the 260s to 310s nationally depending on the category, and they went 0-6 against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. They’re a poor rebounding team that went into this tournament 21-13, which means the losses were plentiful against anything resembling real competition. The irony here is that Purdue’s best chance of losing this game is the defense getting torched by all those 3s — and Queens’ best shot at winning is doing exactly that. But Purdue’s offensive firepower and size is several levels above anything Queens has faced this season. The Boilermakers should roll here, though if they sleepwalk into another sloppy defensive half, the Royals will at least keep it interesting long enough to make you nervous.
Estimated Score: TBD
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