Purdue vs. Texas Prediction
Purdue vs. Texas is the first of eight Sweet 16 games, with a 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday night. The winner goes to the Elite Eight on Saturday and the loser goes home with nothing more than a story to tell. The Longhorns are the lone double-digit seed left in the field, having won in the First Four in Dayton before winning two more games in Portland. Purdue has a couple of double-digit wins thus far and Matt Painter is seeking just his second Elite Eight appearance since 2019.
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How to Watch Purdue vs. Texas
When: 7:10 pm ET on Thursday, March 26
Where: SAP Center in San Jose, CA
Watch: CBS
Odds for Purdue vs. Texas
(odds as of Thurs., Mar. 26 at 6:30 a.m. PT)
Spread: Purdue -7.5 (-110), Texas +7.5 (-110)
Total: Over 147.5 (-112), Under 148.5 (-108)
Purdue vs. Texas Prediction & Preview
There is no right or wrong answer, but you have to wonder if Texas would have rather kept playing instead of having a few days to reflect on what has happened. After getting sent to Dayton for the First Four, the Longhorns beat NC State to earn a cross-country trip to Portland, where they beat BYU and Gonzaga to push forward into the Sweet 16. They’ve drawn another West Coast assignment here in San Jose against No. 2 Purdue.
By seed, Texas is the closest thing we have to a Cinderella as a No. 11, but they are from the SEC with one of the biggest athletic department budgets in the nation. So this isn’t really the No. 11 vs. No. 2 game we’d normally envision. This run is a little bit out of left field for Texas, as they lost by 10 to No. 15 seed Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament after losing four of the last five regular season games. But, timing is everything and the Longhorns won three games in five days to set up this Sweet 16 appearance, despite posting TO% marks of 10.3%, 10.5%, and 10.9% over those games.
This is Painter’s seventh Sweet 16 appearance in the last 10 years, besting Queens U. and Miami (FL) to get to this point. Initial testing showed that sophomore guard C.J. Cox, who looked to suffer a major knee injury against the Hurricanes, just hyperextended his knee, but additional imaging will come to rule out anything serious. Cox is a 38% 3-point shooter and one of the team’s most responsible ball-handlers.
There are some similarities between these two teams, but also some major differences. Both the Boilermakers and Longhorns rank in the top 40 in ORB% and DRB%. Both teams are efficient inside the arc and play at a below average tempo, especially Purdue, who ranks in the 320s in that department. As far as some differences, Texas gets to the free throw line a lot, while Purdue is among the best defensive teams in the nation at contesting shots without fouling. Texas also sells out to run teams off the 3-point line with a 33.1% 3P Rate against, while Purdue’s 3P Rate against of 44.3% ranks in the 320s.
The Boilermakers take a lot of jump shots and force a lot of jump shots. Purdue’s 28.3% shot share on Close Twos is among the lowest in the nation, but their 29% shot share allowed on Close Twos is one of the best. The Big Ten representative is also a far better team from 3, ranking sixth in the nation at 38.8%, while Texas is closer to the national average at 34.8%.
If we look at performance exclusively against Quadrant 1 or Quadrant 1-A competition, Purdue is better across the board on offense and better in a few defensive categories. Opponents in those games shot over 39% from 3 on the Longhorns, so that’ll be a very important area where they need to improve in hopes of pulling the upset.
Estimated Score: Purdue 77.9, Texas 70.4
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