San Diego State vs. Grand Canyon
On a night where the SEC, Big 12, ACC, and Big Ten are all in action, the best game of the night may very well come from the Mountain West. Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology over at ESPN has three MWC teams in his NCAA Tournament field as of now and we could see one, or maybe even two, of them on Wednesday night with San Diego State vs. Grand Canyon.
The Antelopes are playing up a weight class or two this season with a move from the WAC to the Mountain West, while longtime MWC member San Diego State will jump ship for the Pac-12 next season. After winning the WAC in four of his five seasons at the helm, Bryce Drew is now attempting to make a name for himself in a conference littered with strong coaches, including San Diego State’s Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are laying a short road number in Phoenix in this big mid-major battle.
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San Diego State Aztecs (-1.5, 143.5) vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes
11 p.m. ET (FS1)
It’ll be a little bit of a late night for those tuning into this one, but it should be worth the wait. Grand Canyon is coming off of easily their best win of the season with an 84-74 triumph over visiting Utah State. The win gave the Antelopes their first Quadrant 1 win of the season after starting 0-3, but those were Quadrant 1-A games at Saint Louis, on a neutral against Iowa, and at New Mexico.
That New Mexico game was just eight days ago and GCU lost by 23 points, so the win over the Aggies came as a little bit of a surprise. But, that’s what the Mountain West could become this season, as there are a lot of very good teams. Per Bart Torvik and KenPom, there are three teams in the top 50 of both sets of rankings. Pomeroy has eight MWC teams in his top 100 and Torvik has seven, with Colorado State being the difference.
This is a big test for the Aztecs, who have played the 57th-ranked schedule per Torvik and the 25th-ranked non-conference schedule. They’ve lost Q1-A games on neutral floors to Michigan and Arizona, while also dropping a Q1 game to Baylor. Their lone Q1 win came on the road in Reno 15 days ago against Nevada. But, they’ve also handled Wyoming and New Mexico in their last two MWC games.
Statistically, these two teams grade about the same on defense. Both are in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency, with Grand Canyon better at defending the 3-point shot and San Diego State better at defending inside the arc. The other big separator between the two is that the Aztecs have been much more adept at forcing turnovers.
What might make all the difference in this game is how the Aztecs pack the paint on defense. Opponents only have a 30.6% shot share on Close Twos, which is a top-20 mark. Instead, SDSU forces teams into a lot of 3s. The Aztecs have a 49% 3P Rate against, which is one of the 10 highest in the country. The problem here for GCU is that they are only shooting 30.1% on triple tries. On the flip side, SDSU is shooting nearly 38% from deep, but, of course, this is a road game.
The Aztecs are shooting 35.9% from 3 in seven road/neutral games, so we’ll see if they can keep up that pace here. As is often the case with Dutcher teams, to keep everybody locked in defensively, the bench rotation runs extremely deep. Leading scorer BJ Davis only has 11.6 PPG, but he’s also only playing 22.1 minutes per night. Reese Dixon-Waters and Miles Byrd are the others in double figures, but the Aztecs have 11 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game.
Injuries are a bit of a question mark for the Aztecs, as Byrd is dealing with a pesky ailment and Magoon Gwath left the last game with just 10 minutes played. That could be a potential advantage for the Antelopes, as they are pretty healthy at present. Like the Aztecs’ stat sheet, playing time is distributed across the board here. Jaden Henley leads the team with 16.9 PPG and Makaih Williams is the only other player with double figures. Only two players average 30 minutes per night, while seven average at least 21 minutes per game.
San Diego State vs. Grand Canyon Prediction
The Aztecs have some advantages in this game, especially from a shot selection and shot prevention standpoint. Also, Grand Canyon, one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the conference and the nation, gave up 22 ORebs to Utah State last time out, so they were very fortunate that the Aggies failed to convert a high rate of their attempts at the rim. The Antelopes have a pretty high ceiling, but we’ve also seen their floor more than we’ve seen San Diego State’s.
Pick: San Diego State -1.5
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