SMU vs. Miami OH Prediction
In the No. 11 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, SMU vs. Miami OH is the First Four game at 9:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 18 with a trip to first round on the line.
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How to Watch SMU vs. Miami OH
When: 9:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 18th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Watch: truTV
Odds for SMU vs. Miami OH
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: SMU -9.5 (-102), Miami OH +9.5 (-118)
Total: Over 164.5 (-115), Under 164.5 (-105)
SMU vs. Miami OH Prediction & Preview
Before we even get to the basketball, let’s just appreciate the setup here. Two No. 11 seeds playing in the First Four in Dayton on Wednesday night, with the winner heading to Philadelphia to face Tennessee. One team — SMU — probably shouldn’t be in the field at all based on how they finished. The other — Miami of Ohio — arguably shouldn’t be in the First Four based on how they performed all season. And yet, here we are, which is exactly why March is what it is.
The SMU case is a strange one to make. The Mustangs were 12-2 and playing like a legitimate tournament team before the wheels came off, finishing 21-13 and losing five of their final six, including three defeats to non-tournament programs. The Selection Committee kept them in anyway, which will ruffle some feathers when you consider teams like VCU were on the bubble until they won their conference tournament. But SMU did earn it in one very important sense — they were third in the ACC in adjusted offensive efficiency during conference play and shot better than 40% from 3 in a league that doesn’t let bad offensive teams breathe. Second in eFG% in the ACC, 53.7% on 2s, eighth in the country on that metric. The talent is there. Braden Bigelow running the guards, a 7-foot-2 anchor in the middle, 6-foot-6 wings who can play in or out — there’s a playable rotation here.
But the defense is genuinely indefensible. Sixteenth out of 18 ACC teams in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, 17th in 3P% defense, and 0-6 in Quadrant 1-A games tells you just about everything you need to know about what happens when SMU faces teams that can actually execute. They were 4-9 overall in Quadrant 1 games and a bottom-50 team in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, which matters enormously when you factor in that UD Arena in Dayton is roughly an hour northeast of Miami’s campus in Oxford. This crowd is going to be overwhelmingly RedHawk, and SMU has not proven they can handle hostile neutral environments.
Miami of Ohio’s story is one of the most debated in Selection Sunday history, and honestly, a fair compromise was reached. No Quadrant 1 data points. Strength of schedule ranked 344th out of 365 teams per the NET. Ten wins by six or fewer points against a schedule that even the most charitable evaluators couldn’t dress up. And their only loss of the season came in the MAC Tournament to UMass — 87-83 in overtime — which sent them spiraling out of the conference bracket before they could even win their way in. Coach Travis Steele’s squad went 31-1 and is the first MAC team to earn an at-large bid since 1999, which is worth acknowledging.
What’s also worth acknowledging is that this team can flat-out score. Second in the nation in 2P% during the regular season, just outside the top 20 in 3P%, and a turnover rate of just 14.5% — those are elite offensive efficiency markers regardless of competition level. Evan Ipsaro, who was averaging nearly 14 points per game, went down after just 12 games and Miami still won 19 more. The concern, of course, is that a pretty average defense pairs poorly with a flimsy schedule when you get to this stage. They haven’t seen anything resembling SMU’s offensive firepower, and the RedHawks’ defensive profile offers no reason to believe they can slow down the Mustangs’ guard play or perimeter shooting.
What makes this genuinely fascinating is that both teams have a real path to pulling it off. Miami’s offensive efficiency could absolutely overwhelm a defense as porous as SMU’s. SMU’s shooting could expose Miami’s defense just as easily. Crowd advantage tips heavily to the RedHawks given the geography, and that’s not a trivial edge in a one-possession game in Dayton. The loser goes home; the winner gets Tennessee in Philadelphia. Neither program should be thrilled about that draw, but first things first.
Estimated Score: TBD
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