12 p.m. ET: Maryland at Penn State (-3.5, 135.5)
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Maryland (20-10, ranked 21st) just saw their two game win streak come to an end, falling to Ohio State 73-62 and failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Penn State (18-12) has won four of their last five games and just beat Northwestern 68-65 in overtime, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Penn State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Shouldn’t Maryland be favored due to their superior record and ranking? Currently 60% of bets are backing Maryland, yet we’ve seen this line move further to Penn State -2.5 to -3.5. Some shops are even creeping up to Penn State -4. This signals sharp money on the home team, with pros fading the trendy dog Terps and instead laying the points with the contrarian favorite Nittany Lions. Penn State is receiving 40% of bets but 61% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy in their favor. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 37-18 ATS (67%) this season. Penn State is 12-3 at home. Maryland is 2-8 on the road. Penn State is -165 on the moneyline.
