Today we have a loaded slate of College Hoops on tap with roughly 25-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Penn State at Rutgers (-3.5, 158.5)

Penn State (8-1) has won two in a row and just took down Purdue 81-70, covering as 2-point home favorites. On the other hand, Rutgers (5-4) has lost three straight and just fell to Ohio State 80-66, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Rutgers listed as a 1-point home favorite. Early action laid the points with the Scarlet Knights, steaming Rutgers up from -1 to -3.5. At DraftKings, Rutgers is receiving 58% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars. At Circa, Rutgers is taking in 70% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars. However, now that the line has moved so drastically, it opens up an opportunity to go contrarian and buy-low on Penn State at an inflated price. Ken Pom actually has Penn State winning the game by two points (80-78), which means the Nittany Lions are now offering great value as a 3.5-point dog. Ken Pom has Penn State ranked higher (33rd bs 74th), with the superior offensive efficiency (25th vs 62nd) and defensive efficiency (37th vs 96th). The Nittany Lions also have the far better effective field goal percentage (58.9% vs 50.8%) and three-point shooting (38.2% vs 32.2%). Penn State has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Nittany Lions also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on December 5th while Rutgers last played on December 7th.

9 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Michigan (-4, 147)

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden in New York City as part of the Jimmy V Classic. Arkansas (7-2) has won two straight and just took down UTSA 75-60 but failed to cover as 19.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (8-1, ranked 14th) has won seven in a row and just edged Iowa 85-83 but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Michigan listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Michigan fall from -4.5 to -4. Some shops are even down to -3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that respected pro money has jumped on Arkansas plus the points. At Circa, Arkansas is receiving 54% of spread bets but a hefty 91% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Michigan winning by exactly four points (74-70). Arkansas has the better three-point shooting (36.2% vs 35.2%) and free-throw shooting (71.6% vs 68.6%). Arkansas takes better care of the ball, ranking 157th in turnovers compared to 335th for Michigan. The Razorbacks are also a “dog who can score” system match (79.4 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Arkansas has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.

10 p.m. ET: Kansas City at Portland (-2.5, 143)

Kansas City (4-7) has dropped three straight and just lost to Montana State 74-62, failing to cover as 9-point road dogs. Similarly, Portland (3-6) has lost four of their last five and just fell to Kent State 76-57, failing to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Portland listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public isn’t interested in this late night, small school matchup but pros have taken a liking to Portland, steaming the Pilots up from -1 to -2.5. At Circa, Portland is only receiving 33% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split. Ken Pom has Portland winning by one point (72-71). Those looking to follow the sharp line move but wary of a close margin could elect to play Portland on the moneyline at -150. Portland is receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, indicating one-sided action on the Pilots to win straight up. Portland has the better effective field goal percentage (46.9% vs 41.9%) and three-point shooting (31.7% vs 28.1%). Portland enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on December 6th compared to Kansas City last played on December 7th. Kansas City is 0-4 on the road this season. Portland is 2-1 at home.

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