March Madness comes to a close tonight as Connecticut faces Michigan in the National Championship game. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for the final NCAA Tournament matchup using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:50 p.m. ET: Connecticut vs Michigan (-6.5, 145.5)
Connecticut (34-5) is the 2-seed and just took down Illinois 71-52 in the Final Four, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Michigan (36-3) is the 1-seed and just dominated Arizona 91-73 in the Final Four, easily winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Michigan listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
The public think this line is a bit short and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with the powerhouse Wolverines.
However, despite receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Michigan dip down from -7 to -6.5 across the market.
Normally, if a team is garnering such clear support you would expect the line move move further in their favor. The fact that this line has fallen away from the popular side (Michigan) and toward the unpopular side (Connecticut) signals sharp reverse line movement on the Huskies plus the points.
Connecticut has elevated “bet against the public” value as the Huskies are only receiving 37% of spread bets at DraftKings and 45% of spread bets at Circa in a nationally televised, heavily bet primetime showdown on TBS.
At DraftKings, Michigan is taking in 63% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Wolverines are receiving 55% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars.
It’s been a chalky March Madness overall, with favorites going 36-30 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI. Favorites of 6.5-points or more have gone 23-13 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI. Over the past 20 years, favorites have gone 13-7 ATS (65%) with a 27% ROI in the National Championship game.
Ken Pom has Michigan winning by seven points (77-70).
This creates a notable “shop for the best line” opportunity for bettors, as much of the market is offering Michigan -6.5 but a few other books are still hanging Connecticut +7 or even +7.5 (-120).
Sharps have also leaned over, as we’ve seen the total tick up from 143.5 to 145.5. The total has risen from 144.5 to 145.5 on gameday, signaling late movement further backing the over as limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 73% of bets and 76% of dollars. At BetMGM, the over is receiving 78% of bets and 84% of dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of a higher scoring game.
Michigan is 4-1 to the over in five NCAA Tournament games, averaging 94.4 points per game throughout March Madness.
The Wolverines rank 4th in offensive efficiency, 6th in effective field goal percentage, 25th in three-point shooting and 4th in two-point field goal percentage.
Kem Pom is predicting a combined total of 147, which also offers value on the over 145.5.
