Today March Madness continues with a pair of Elite 8 matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both NCAA Tournament games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:09 p.m. ET: Texas Tech vs Florida (-7.5, 157.5)
Texas Tech is the 3-seed and just outlasted Arkansas 85-83 in overtime in the Sweet 16 but failed to cover as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Florida (33-4) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Maryland 87-71 in the Sweet 16, easily covering as 7.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have laid the wood with the Gators, steaming Florida up from -6.5 to -7.5.
At DraftKings, Florida is taking in 79% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars. This “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicates heavy one-way Pro and Joe support from both wiseguys and the betting public.
The Gators match two profitable betting systems. First, favorites with line movement in their direction are 17-11 ATS (61%) with a 16% ROI this March Madness. Also, favorites of 7-points or more are 17-10 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI this March Madness.
Florida has the better offensive efficiency (2nd vs 5th) and defensive efficiency (9th vs 39th). The Gators also have the superior offensive rebound percentage (5th vs 52nd) and limit their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (5th vs 54th). Florida has the higher scoring offense (86 PPG vs 81 PPG) and grabs more rebounds per game (42 vs 37). The Gators are averaging 91 PPG over their last ten games compared to 79 PPG for the Red Raiders.
In terms of the total, it opened as low as 155.5 and has been steamed up to 175.5. The public expects a higher scoring game and is hammering the over (73% of bets at DraftKings). However, we are seeing some high-water mark resistance as the inflated 175.5 is being juiced up -115 to the under and some shops are creeping back down to 175.
8:49 p.m. ET: Alabama vs Duke (-7, 174.5)
Alabama (28-8) is the 2-seed and just destroyed BYU 113-88 in the Sweet 16, cruising as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Duke (34-3) is the 1-seed and just held off Arizona 100-93 in the Sweet 16 but failed to cover as 9-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen Duke rise up from -6.5 to -7. This signals smart money backing Duke at -6.5.
However, we are seeing some respected buyback on Alabama at the inflated +7.5, which seems to be the high-water mark of the line. Many books that have reached +7.5 are juicing up Alabama (+7.5 at -115) and falling back down to +7. In other words, it appears as though we have dueling sharp money (or a wiseguy middle) that has targeted Duke at -6.5 and Alabama at +7.5.
Ken Pom has Duke winning by six points (87-81), which provides actionable value for savvy bettors who can shop for the best line and locate a book that is still offering Alabama plus the hook (+7.5).
Alabama has value as a “dog who can score” system match (91 PPG, first in the country), which increases the chances that the Crimson Tide can keep pace or backdoor cover.
Wiseguys have also hammered this over, raising the total from 172.5 to 174.5. Some shops reached as high as 175.5, at which point we saw some sharp under buyback drop total back down to 174.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 74% of bets and 75% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 73% of bets and 75% of dollars.
