Today March Madness returns with a pair of Final Four matchups to get down on. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:09 p.m. ET: Florida (-2.5, 159.5) vs Auburn
Florida (34-4) just outlasted Texas Tech 84-79 in the Elite 8 but failed to cover as 6.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Auburn (32-5) just took down Michigan State 70-64 in the Elite 8, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Gators. However, despite Florida receiving 66% of spread bets at DraftKings the line hasn’t budged off Gators -2.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect them to rise up from -2.5 to -3 or more. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite the heavy ticket count signals a sharp line freeze on Auburn plus the points, with books reluctant to adjust the line toward the popular chalk Gators for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Tigers backers.
Auburn has notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, primetime game. At Circa, Auburn is only taking in 34% of spread bets but a whopping 60% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor.
Ken Pom has Florida winning by one point (81-80), which provides actionable value on Auburn at the current price (+2.5).
Auburn takes better care of the ball, ranking 7th in turnover percentage compared to 59th for Florida. The Tigers also have the slightly better defensive efficiency, ranking 8th compared to 10th for the Gators.
Shorts dogs getting 3.5-points or less are 9-5 ATS (64%) this March Madness. Auburn also has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 161.5 to 159.5. At Circa, the under is receiving 69% of bets but a hefty 90% of dollars. This indicates the bigger, sharper wagers playing a lower scoring game.
8:49 p.m. ET: Houston vs Duke (-5, 136.5)
Houston (34-4) just crushed Tennessee 69-50 in the Elite 8, easily covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Duke (35-3) just demolished Alabama 85-65 in the Elite 8, cruising as 7.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. Early sharp action laid the points with Duke, steaming the Blue Devils up from -4.5 to -5.5. However, over the past few days we’ve seen sharp buyback on Houston at an inflated +5.5, dropping the line back down to 5 or even 4.5 at some shops.
The public is all over Duke, as the Blue Devils are receiving 71% of spread bets at DraftKings. As a result, Houston is the top contrarian play of the day as they are only taking in 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet, late-night primetime game.
Ken Pom has Duke winning by two points (68-66), which provides actionable value on Houston, especially if savvy value-minded bettors can shop for the best line and still find a book hanging +5.5.
Houston has the better offensive rebound percentage (11th vs 52nd) and three-point percentage (2nd vs 8th). The Cougars also have the superior defensive efficiency (1st vs 5th) and force more turnovers (20th vs 178th).
Houston may also enjoy a de-facto home court advantage, as this game will be played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas.
In terms of the total, it opened at 136.5, got bet down to 135.5 but has since risen back up to 136.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 73% of bets and dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 48% of bets and 50% of dollars.
Both teams rank top 5 in defensive efficiency. Both teams also rank slower in terms of tempo, with Duke ranking 269th and Houston 360th (5th slowest in college basketball).
Updated Champion Odds (DraftKings)
Duke -110
Florida +300
Houston +425
Auburn +550
