Today we have a smaller than usual College Basketball slate on tap with only 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: East Tennessee State (-3.5, 142.5) at Austin Peay
East Tennessee State (8-2) has won two straight and just brushed aside Division II Tusculum 78-62. On the other hand, Austin Peay (4-5) has dropped four of their last five and just fell to UT Rio Grande Valley 63-50, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with East Tennessee State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with East Tennessee State, who has the far better won-loss record.
However, despite receiving 55% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen East Tennessee State remain stagnant at -3.5. The line briefly rose to East Tennessee State -4.5 before quickly falling back down to -3.5 where we stand on gameday.
Essentially, we are looking at a wiseguy “line freeze” on Austin Peay plus the points, as the line is right back where it opened despite the public backing the road chalk Buccaneers.
At DraftKings, Austin Peay is receiving 45% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Governors are taking in 80% of spread bets and 85% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home dog.
Kem Pom has East Tennessee State winning by three points (72-69), which offers value on Austin Peay plus the hook (+3.5).
Austin Peay has buy-low value as a below .500 team on a losing streak against a sell-high above .500 team on a winning streak.
East Tennessee State is 1-2 on the road compared to 7-0 at home.
Meanwhile, Austin Peay is 2-0 at home but 2-5 on the road.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 143.5 to 142.5.
At DraftKings, the under is only receiving 32% of bets but 47% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
9 p.m. ET: California Baptist (-3.5, 152.5) at Eastern Washington
California Baptist (7-3) has dropped three in a row and just fell to Utah 91-85 but managed to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Eastern Washington (2-7) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 90-66 win over Kansas City, covering as 9.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with California Baptist listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Lancers.
However, despite receiving 66% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen California Baptist fall from -4.5 to -3.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the chalk with California Baptist to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Eastern Washington plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Eastern Washington is offering notable “bet against the public” value as the Eagles are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in the most heavily bet late game of the night.
Eastern Washington has the better effective field goal percentage (54% vs 48%), three-point shooting (35% vs 31%) and free-throw shooting (71% vs 70%).
California Baptist 2-3 on the road compared to 4-0 at home.
Meanwhile, Eastern Washington is 2-0 at home but 0-7 on the road.
Eastern Washington is playing their second straight home game. On the other hand, California Baptist is playing their final game of a five-game road trip (which they’ve gone 1-3 so far).
We could also be looking at a higher scoring here as the total has ticked up from 151.5 to 152.5.
