Today we wrap up the work week with a 20-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Manhattan at Iona (-3.5, 145.5)

Manhattan (13-10) has won three straight and just held off Fairfield 80-67, easily covering as 1.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Iona (11-15) has dropped two in a row and just came up short against Quinnipiac 79-74 but managed to cover as 6.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Iona listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Iona move up from -2.5 to -3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pros have sided with Iona at home.

At DraftKings, Iona is only receiving 53% of spread bets but a whopping 82% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy.

Ken Pom has Iona winning by two points (76-74). As a result, pros have looked to follow the sharp move but also protect themselves by playing Iona on the moneyline at -175.

Iona has the better defensive efficiency (180th vs 331st), offensive rebound percentage (38% vs 33%) and is better at turning their opponent over (2nd vs 303rd).

Iona has buy-low value as a fishy sub .500 team on a losing skid against a sell-high above .500 team on a winning streak.

8 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Michigan (-3.5, 150.5)

Michigan State (21-5, ranked 14th) has won two straight and just brushed aside Purdue 75-66, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (20-5, ranked 12th) has won six in a row and just outlasted Ohio State 86-83, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Michigan listed as low as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees two great teams going head-to-head and doesn’t now which side of the spread to take. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen most books move up to Michigan -3.5. This signals sneaky sharp liability on the home favorite Wolverines.

At DraftKings, Michigan is taking in 52% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. At Circa, Michigan is receiving 50% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Wolverines.

Ken Pom has Michigan winning by two points (76-74). With this in mind, many wiseguys have elected to back the Wolverines on the moneyline at -165. At Circa, Michigan is taking in 50% of moneyline bets but 70% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers out in Vegas backing the home team to earn a straight up victory.

Michigan has the better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 52%) and three-point shooting (36% vs 29%). The Wolverines also enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as Michigan last played on February 16th while Michigan State last played on February 18th.

Michigan is a perfect 12-0 at home this season.

When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite in 167-59 (74%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2021. Big 10 home favorites are 71-33 (68%) straight up in conference play this season.

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