Today we wrap up the work week with a smaller than usual 9 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
8 p.m. ET: Murray State (-1.5, 158.5) at Southern Illinois
Murray State (17-7) just snapped a four-game losing skid with an 81-74 win over Illinois Chicago, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Southern Illinois (10-13) has won two of their last three and just held off Illinois State 54-40, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Southern Illinois listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Murray State, flipping the Racers from a 1.5-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Murray State.
At Circa, Murray State is taking in 80% of spread bets and a whopping 97% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of heavy pro money out in Vegas backing the road chalk.
Those looking to protect themselves and add some cushion in the event of a close game may prefer a Murray State moneyline play at -125.
At DraftKings, Murray State is taking in 76% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way split in favor of a straight up Racers victory.
Short favorites -4 or less with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 198-130 (60%) straight up with a 2.5% ROI this season.
Murray State is 9-4 in conference play. Southern Illinois is 4-8.
Murray State has the far better offensive efficiency (61st vs 249th), effective field goal percentage (51st vs 245th), offensive rebound percentage (75th vs 214th), three point shooting (116th vs 355th) and free throw shooting (42nd vs 343rd).
The Racers have the superior scoring offense, averaging 86 PPG comparted to 74 PPG for Southern Illinois.
8 p.m. ET: Connecticut (-2.5, 144.5) at St. John’s
Connecticut (22-1, ranked 3rd) has won 18 straight games and just crushed Xavier 92-60, easily covering as 17-point home favorites. Meanwhile, St. John’s (17-5, ranked 22nd) has won 8 in a row and just handled DePaul 68-56, covering as 9.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so low and 77% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Huskies.
This overwhelming support pushed Connecticut up from -1.5 to -2.5.
However, now that the line has moved a full point we are seeing sharp buyback on St. John’s, with the Johnnies being juiced up +2.5 (-115). A few shops have even fallen back down to +2 or even +1.5.
In other words, it appears as though the line has reached its high water mark and pros are beginning to buy low on St. John’s as an inflated contrarian conference dog.
St. John’s is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Red Storm are only receiving 23% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game of the night on FOX.
At Circa, St. John’s is taking in 13% of spread bets but 39% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy from the wiseguys in the desert.
Ken Pom has Connecticut winning by one point (73-72), which provides an edge on St. John’s at the current price (+2.5).
St. John’s has the better offensive rebound percentage (11th vs 49th), free throw percentage (156th vs 241st) and also do a better job of not turning it over on offense (74th vs 145th).
