Today we have a smaller than usual College Basketball slate on tap with only 7 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Baylor at Kansas (-7.5, 155.5)
Baylor (11-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 94-79 win over Oklahoma State, easily covering as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (12-5) just shocked Iowa State 84-63, easily winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the chalk and have laid the wood with the Jayhawks, steaming Kansas up from -6.5 to -7.5.
At DraftKings, Kansas is receiving 64% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kansas is taking in 40% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of the Jayhawks minus the points.
Ken Pom has Kansas winning by eight points (82-74), which provides a slight edge on Jayhawks -7.5. He also has Kansas ranked higher (17th vs 40th).
Kansas has the better defensive efficiency (15th vs 94th), free-throw shooting (72nd vs 147th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (7th vs 75th).
Kansas is 7-1 at home with an average margin of victory of 10.1 points.
Pros are also banking on a higher scoring game, as the total has ticked up from 154 to 155.5.
When the total is between the “sweet spot” of 150 and 160 and rises at least a point, the over is 184-145 (56%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Both teams rank in upper echelon in offensive efficiency (Baylor 14th and Kansas 34th). Additionally, both teams boast an effective field goal percentage of roughly 54%.
Both teams can also shoot the three, with Baylor ranking 49th in three-point percentage and Kansas 59th.
10:30 p.m. ET: Colorado State at Boise State (-5.5, 139.5)
Colorado State (11-6) has rotated wins and losses over their last five games and just fell to Fresno State 79-69, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Boise State (9-8) has lost four in a row and just came up short against UNLV 89-85 in overtime, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Boise State listed as a 6-point home favorite.
The public can’t make up their minds in terms of whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this split 50/50 ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen Boise State tick down slightly from -6 to -5.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect the line to move if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread either way. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with Colorado State plus the points.
At Circa, Colorado State is receiving 33% of spread bets but 50% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the road dog.
Ken Pom has Boise State winning by five points (73-68), which provides an actionable edge on Colorado State plus the hook (+5.5).
Colorado State has the far better offensive efficiency (41st vs 125th), effective field goal percentage (7th vs 270th), three-point shooting (4th vs 247th) and free-throw shooting (32nd vs 61st).
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 142.5 to 139.5, with some shops even creeping down to 138.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 33% of bets and 49% of dollars. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 67% of bets and over 90% of dollars on the under. Both books are displaying a wiseguy split in favor of a lower scoring game.
