Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 24 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: Indiana (-6.5, 148.5) at Rutgers
Indiana (12-7) has lost four straight and just fell to Michigan 86-72 but managed to cover as 15.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Rutgers (9-10) has dropped three of their last four and just came up short against Iowa 68-62 but covered as 17.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Indiana listed as a 7.5-point road favorite.
The public expects Indiana to get back on track and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with the Hoosiers.
However, despite receiving roughly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen Indiana tick down from -7.5 to -6.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Hoosiers to begin with? Because respected smart money has grabbed the points with Rutgers, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.
Rutgers is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Scarlet Knights are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in one of the most heavily bet nationally televised games of the night on FS1.
Conference home dogs with a line move in their favor, like the Scarlet Knights here, are 53-39 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Rutgers has the advantage on the boards, ranking 82nd in offensive rebound percentage compared to 222nd for Indiana.
Rutgers is 8-3 at home this season. Indiana is 1-4 on the road.
7 p.m. ET: Chicago State at St. Francis (-2.5, 143.5)
Chicago State (2-17) has dropped eight in a row and just came up short against New Haven 62-56, losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, St. Francis (5-14) has won three of their last five and just edged Stonehill 63-61, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with St. Francis listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on St. Francis laying short chalk at home, steaming the Red Flash up from -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are juicing up St. Francis -2.5 (-115), signaling further liability and a possible game-day rise up to -3.
At DraftKings, St. Francis is receiving 74% of spread bets and a whopping 87% of spread dollars. At Circa, St. Francis is taking in 42% of spread bets and a hefty 71% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Red Flash.
This line movement and bet split discrepancy is even more notable considering this is a low bet “added/extra” game (#306593/306594). This means that the matchup is very unpopular with the betting public. However, even though the public is overlooking this matchup we know sharps have taken a keen interest based on the “obscure sharp” line move.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing St. Francis on the moneyline at -150.
St. Francis has the better effective field goal percentage (330th vs 360th) and three-point shooting (205th vs 296th).
St. Francis is 4-4 at home. Chicago State is 1-12 on the road.
7:30 p.m. ET: Tulane at Charlotte (-3.5, 143.5)
Tulane (12-7) has dropped three straight and just came up short against Florida Atlantic 79-74 but managed to cover as 10.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Charlotte (10-9) has won four of their last five and just held off East Carolina 73-70, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Charlotte listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this nearly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Charlotte fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Several shops are juicing up Tulane +3.5 (-115), signaling further liability on the road dog and a possible game-day move down to +3.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the more respected sharp action has sided with Tulane plus the points.
At DraftKings, Tulane is taking in 51% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars. At Circa, Tulane is receiving 67% of spread bets but a whopping 99% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog, especially the wiseguys out in the desert.
Tulane has the better free-throw shooting (33rd vs 213th), defensive efficiency (215th vs 271st), force more turnovers (123rd vs 297th) and take better care of the ball, ranking 65th in turnover percentage committed compared to 234th for Charlotte.
When two teams from the American Conference face off, the road dog is 15-10 ATS (60%) with a 14% ROI this season.
