Today we have a smaller than usual College Basketball slate on tap with only 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using for a trio of matchups our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Akron at Kent State (-3, 144.5)

Akron (15-5) has won eight games in a row and just took down Northern Illinois 80-70 but failed to cover as 15.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Kent State (13-7) has won two of their last three and just brushed aside Bowling Green 75-57, covering as 12-point home favorites.

This line opened with Kent State listed as a 1-point home favorite. At DraftKings, 55% of spread bets are backing road dog Akron, who has the better won-loss record. However, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Kent State -1 to -3. Some shops are even approaching -3.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Kent State, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, Kent State is only receiving 45% of spread bets but a whopping 86% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the short home chalk.

Ken Pom has Kent State winning by one point (71-70). With this in mind, those looking to follow the sharp Kent State move but also protect themselves in the event of a close game could instead elect to play the Golden Flashes on the moneyline at -160.

Kent State has the superior defensive efficiency (53rd vs 129th) and better offensive rebound percentage (35% vs 33%). The Golden Flashes rank 36th in forced turnover percentage compared to the Zips ranking 121st. Kent State is allowing 64 PPG compared to Akron giving up 73 PPG.

7 p.m. ET: Dayton at Saint Louis (-1.5, 144.5)

Dayton (14-7) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to Saint Bonaventure 75-53 and losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Saint Louis (13-8) has won three of their last four and just upset VCU 78-69, winning outright as 5.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Saint Louis listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split 50/50 ticket count at DraftKings we’ve quietly seen sharps juice up Saint Louis -1.5 (-115) and even move up to -2 at some shops. This signals sneaky sharp money backing the home team. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t be juiced up or move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price.

Sharps have specifically targeted Saint Louis to win the game straight up (-130). At Circa, Saint Louis is receiving 50% of moneyline dollars but a massive 98% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home team. Ken Pom has Saint Louis winning by one point (74-73).

Saint Louis has the better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 54%) and defensive efficiency (123rd vs 148th). Saint Louis is 11-1 at home this season. Dayton is 1-3 on the road.

7 p.m. ET: Brown at Pennsylvania (-1.5, 144)

Brown (9-8) has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Dartmouth 84-83, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania (6-11) has won two straight and just edged Columbia 93-78, winning outright as 3-point home dogs.

This line opened with Brown listed as a 1-point road favorite. Sharps have sided with the home team, flipping Pennsylvania from a 1-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Quakers at home. This movement is also notable because this is one of the smallest and least bet games of the night, which means the public is largely bypassing this matchup but pros have specifically targeted it.

At DraftKings, Pennsylvania is receiving 62% of moneyline bets but a hefty 83% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Penn winning straight up (-120).

Penn has fishy buy-low value as a short home favorite with a below .500 record against a sell-high road dog with a winning record. Penn has the better free-throw percentage (69% vs 64%), which could prove meaningful in a close game.

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