Today we wrap up the work week with a 37 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: Southern Miss vs Texas State (-1.5, 139.5)
This is the 4th round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament.
Southern Miss (17-15) is the 8-seed and just took down James Madison 86-80 in yesterday’s 3rd round matchup, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Texas State (19-12) is the 5-seed and has won eight of their last nine games, beating Appalachian State 60-57 in their regular season finale and winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Southern Miss listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Texas State, flipping the Bobcats from a 1.5-point neutral site dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Texas State.
Many pros have specifically targeted Texas State to win straight up on the moneyline (-120), as the Bobcats are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings.
Texas State has the better effective field goal percentage (245th vs 290th), offensive rebound percentage (73rd vs 128th), three-point shooting (273rd vs 350th) and free-throw shooting (59th vs 139th).
The Bobcats enjoy a notable “rest vs tired” advantage, as Texas State last played on February 27th while Southern Miss is the playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
7 p.m. ET: Central Michigan at Ball State (-2.5, 134.5)
Central Michigan (10-20) has rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just fell to Akron 77-64, failing to cover as 11.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Ball State (11-19) has won three in a row and just took down Western Michigan 74-71 in overtime, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Ball State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the short home chalk, driving Ball State up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At Circa, Ball State is taking in only 33% of spread bets but a whopping 96% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split indicating heavy wiseguy support from the pros out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Ball State winning by one point (68-67).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing the Cardinals on the moneyline at -145.
Ball State has the better defensive efficiency (194th vs 277th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (146th vs 275th) and force more turnovers on defense (67th vs 163rd).
Central Michigan is just 1-14 on the road this season, the worst road record in the MAC.
This is also Senior Night for Ball State.
8 p.m. ET: Tennessee Martin vs Tennessee State (-2.5, 137.5)
This is the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Semifinal.
Tennessee Martin (22-10) is the 4-seed and just took down Eastern Illinois 66-63 in yesterday’s quarterfinal but failed to cover as 8-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Tennessee State (21-9) is the 1-seed, has won four straight and just beat Tennessee Martin 67-42 in their regular season finale, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Tennessee State listed as low as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Tigers, pushing Tennessee State up from -1.5 to -2.5 with some shops briefly touching -3. We have never seen this line get down to -1 or lower. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has come down on the side of the top seeded Tigers.
Ken Pom has Tennessee State winning by one point (71-70). He also has the Tigers ranked higher (208th vs 216th).
As a result, many sharps have specifically targeted Tennessee State on the moneyline at -145.
At DraftKings, Tennessee State is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of pro money banking on a straight up Tigers victory.
Tennessee State has the better offensive efficiency (186th vs 313th), three-point shooting (287th vs 335th), free-throw shooting (56th vs 329th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (155th vs 358th).
The Tigers average 81 PPG on offense compared to 70 PPG for the Skyhawks.
Tennessee State also enjoys a pronounced “rest vs tired” advantage as the Tigers last played on February 28th while the Skyhawks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
