Today the opening round of the NCAA Tournament continues with 16 March Madness games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:15 p.m. ET: Hofstra vs Alabama (-11.5, 158.5)
Hofstra (24-10) is the 13-seed and just outlasted Monmouth 75-69 to win the CAA tournament, covering as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Alabama (23-9) is the 4-seed and just fell to Ole Miss 80-79 in the SEC tournament quarterfinal, losing outright as 12.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Alabama listed as a 12.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Alabama fall from -12.5 to -11.5. This signals smart money grabbing the points with Hofstra.
Alabama will also be without their second leading scorer Aden Holloway (16.8 PPG) due to suspension.
At DraftKings, Hofstra is taking in 51% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating public indecision but also heavy sharp action in favor of the Pride.
Ken Pom has Alabama winning by eleven points (87-76), which provides an edge on Hofstra plus the hook (+11.5).
Hofstra has the better offensive rebound percentage (52nd vs 131st), three-point shooting (31st vs 70th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (9th vs 73rd) and force more turnovers on defense (289th vs 362nd).
7:10 p.m. ET: Northern Iowa vs St. John’s (-9.5, 131.5)
Northern Iowa (23-12) is the 12-seed and just brushed aside Illinois Chicago 84-69 to win the MVC Tournament, easily covering as 3-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, St. John’s (28-6) is the 5-seed and just crushed Connecticut 72-52 to win the Big East Tournament, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with St. John’s listed as a 10.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public expects a Red Storm blowout and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with St. John’s.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen St. John’s fall from -10.5 to -9.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on Northern Iowa plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Panthers despite the public hammering the Red Storm.
Northern Iowa offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Panthers are receiving less than one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on CBS.
At DraftKings, Northern Iowa is taking in 29% of spread bets and 39% of spread dollars. At Circa, Northern Iowa is receiving 45% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the Panthers.
Ken Pom has St. John’s winning by nine points (71-62), which offers value on Northern Iowa plus the hook (+9.5).
Northern Iowa has the better effective field goal percentage (63rd vs 193rd), three-point shooting (129th vs 217th), two-point shooting percentage (52nd vs 189th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (44th vs 54th).
The Panthers also allow fewer offensive rebounds to their opponents (23rd vs 172nd) and hold their opponents to a better three-point shooting percentage (3rd vs 40th).
7:25 p.m. ET: Central Florida vs UCLA (-5.5, 152.5)
Central Florida (21-11) is the 10-seed and just got crushed by Arizona 81-59 in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinal, failing to cover as 16.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, UCLA (23-11) is the 7-seed and just fell to Purdue 73-66 in the Big Ten tournament semifinal but managed to cover as 7.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with UCLA listed as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is leaning slightly toward laying the points with the Bruins.
However, despite receiving 53% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen UCLA fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This signals sneaky reverse line movement on Central Florida plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite receiving less than half the tickets.
Ken Pom has UCLA winning by four points (80-76), which offers actionable value on Central Florida at the current price (+5.5).
Central Florida has the better offensive rebound percentage (60th vs 163rd), limit their opponents to fewer offensive rebounds (88th vs 279th) and average more rebounds per game overall (37 vs 32).
The Knights are a “dog who can score” system match (81 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or earn a back door cover.
UCLA is also in a “fade” schedule spot as a West Coast team traveling cross country to the East Coast (Philadelphia).
