Today March Madness continues with eight more NCAA Tournament games to get down on. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
5:15 p.m. ET: Illinois (-2, 167.5) vs Kentucky
Illinois (22-12) is the 6-seed and just handled Xavier 86-73, covering as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Kentucky (23-11) is the 3-seed and just took down Troy 76-57, covering as 11.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have pounced on Illinois, flipping the Illini from a 1-point dog to a 2-point favorite. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Illinois.
At DraftKings, Illinois is receiving 45% of spread bets and 51% of spread dollars. At Circa, Illinois is receiving 52% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Illini.
Ken Pom has Illinois winning by one point (85-84). With this in mind, many wiseguys have looked to protect themselves by playing Illinois on the moneyline (-135).
Illinois has the better defensive efficiency (41st vs 54th), offensive rebound percentage (36% vs 29%) and free-throw shooting (77% vs 74%).
9:40 p.m. ET: Oregon vs Arizona (-3.5, 152.5)
Oregon (25-9) is the 5-seed and just crushed Liberty 81-52, easily covering as 6.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona (23-12) is the 4-seed and just brushed aside Akron 93-65, cruising as 14-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is relatively split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Arizona fall from -4.5 to -3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Oregon plus the points.
At Circa, Oregon is receiving 51% of spread bets but a whopping 91% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Arizona winning by three points (78-75). This provides actionable value on Oregon plus the hook (+3.5).
Oregon has the better defensive efficiency (22nd vs 24th) and three-point shooting (74% vs 73%). The Ducks also force more turnovers on defense (140th vs 225th).
