Today we kick off a new week with a 24 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out now >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
8 p.m. ET: Abilene Christian at Tarleton State (-1.5, 135.5)
Abilene Christian (12-13) and Tarleton State (12-13) just played each other two days ago, with Abilene Christian winning 73-59 and covering as 3.5-point home favorites.
In tonight’s home and home rematch, Tarleton State opened as a 1.5-point home favorite.
We’ve seen Tarleton State creep up from -1.5 to -2.5 before falling back down to -1.5. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has been on the side of the home chalk.
At DraftKings, Tarleton State is receiving 59% of spread bets and 69% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Texans at home.
Ken Pom has Tarleton State winning by five points (72-67). He also has the Texans ranked higher (211th vs 232nd).
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Tarleton State on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, Tarleton State is receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy one-way support in favor of a straight up Texans victory on their home court.
Tarleton State has the better offensive efficiency (270th vs 303rd), effective field goal percentage (290th vs 328th) and free-throw shooting (79th vs 244th).
Tarleton State is 8-4 at home. Abilene Christian is 3-8 on the road.
8 p.m. ET: Florida A&M at Alcorn State (-1.5, 137.5)
Florida A&M (9-14) has lost five of their last six and just got crushed by Jackson State 80-60, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Alcorn State (6-18) has won three of their last five and just edged Bethune Cookman 57-55, winning outright as 8.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Florida A&M listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Alcorn State, flipping the Braves from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the home team.
At DraftKings, Alcorn State is taking in 42% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
This line move and bet split is even more important considering this is an added/extra game (#306541-306542). This means it’s a tiny, overlooked matchup that the public has little to no interest in. However, based on the market movement we can infer that wiseguys have taken a keen interest and sided with the home team.
Ken Pom has Alcorn State winning by one point (71-70).
As a result, sharps looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game may prefer a Braves moneyline play at -120.
Alcorn State has the better offensive efficiency (333rd vs 349th) and three-point shooting (94th vs 236th).
Alcorn State is 3-2 at home. Florida A&M is 2-11 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Houston at Iowa State (-2.5, 134.5)
Houston (23-2, ranked 2nd) has won six straight and just brushed aside Kansas State 78-64 but failed to cover as 21.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa State (22-3, ranked 6th) has won six of their last seven and just dominated Kansas 74-56, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public sees an even matchup between two great teams and 59% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking Houston plus the points.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Houston we’ve actually seen this line tick up further toward Iowa State -1.5 to -2.5.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Cyclones, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing the Cougars.
At DraftKings, Iowa State is taking in 41% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in the most heavily bet game of the night on ESPN.
Ken Pom has Iowa State winning by three points (70-67).
With this in mind, bettors looking to gain some added protection may prefer a Cyclones moneyline play at -145.
At DraftKings, Iowa State is receiving 41% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars, another sharp contrarian split in favor of a straight up Cyclones victory.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite has gone 197-81 (71%) straight up with a 3% ROI since 2021.
When two teams in the Big 12 face off in conference play, the home favorite has gone 49-11 (82%) straight up with a 3% ROI this season.
Iowa State has the better effective field goal percentage (11th vs 136th) and three-point shooting (4th vs 179th).
The Cyclones are a perfect 14-0 at home this season.
