Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 9 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Louisville (-2.5, 162.5) at North Carolina
Louisville (20-7, ranked 21st) has won six of their last seven and just brushed aside Georgia Tech 87-70 but failed to cover as 23.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, North Carolina (21-6, ranked 16th) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just took down Syracuse 77-64, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Louisville listed as low as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If North Carolina has the better record, ranking and enjoys home court advantage then why are the Tar Heels an underdog?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 55% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing North Carolina plus the points at home.
However, despite the public backing the Tar Heels we’ve seen the line move further toward Louisville -1.5 to -2.5, with some shops even touching -3. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Louisville, as the line has moved in the direction despite the public backing North Carolina.
At DraftKings, Louisville is taking in 45% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in one of the most heavily bet nationally televised game of the night on ESPN.
Ken Pom has Louisville winning by one point (80-81). He also has the Cardinals ranked higher (15th vs 30th).
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game may prefer a Louisville moneyline play at -150.
At DraftKings, Louisville is taking in 40% of moneyline bets and 49% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Louisville is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp split in favor of a straight up Cardinals win.
Louisville has the better offensive efficiency (13th vs 31st), defensive efficiency (28th vs 38th), effective field goal percentage (18th vs 65th), three-point shooting (61st vs 202nd) and free-throw shooting (17th vs 308th).
7:30 p.m. ET: Houston Christian at East Texas A&M (-3.5, 137.5)
Houston Christian (10-18) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Northwestern State 71-53 and failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, East Texas A&M (11-18) has dropped three of their last four and just came up short against Incarnate Word 82-73, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with East Texas A&M listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on the Lions laying short chalk at home, driving East Texas A&M up from -2.5 to -3.5.
At DraftKings, East Texas A&M is receiving 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way bet split in their favor.
This is also an “added/extra” game with a 6-digit rotation number (306601-306602), which means the game is very low bet and largely ignored by the betting public. However, based on the market movement we can infer that wiseguys have targeted this tiny matchup and sided with the home chalk.
Ken Pom has East Texas A&M winning by four points (71-67). He also has the Lions ranked higher (283rd vs 298th).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by playing the Lions on the moneyline at -160.
At Circa, East Texas A&M is taking in 50% of moneyline bets but 71% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of sharps in Vegas playing the Lions to earn a straight up victory.
East Texas A&M has the better defensive efficiency (195th vs 298th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (257th vs 328th).
East Texas A&M IS 6-7 at home season. Houston Christian is 2-14 on the road, the 2nd worst road record in the Southland Conference
This is also a revenge spot for East Texas A&M, as the Lions lost on the road to Houston Christian 81-70 back in mid January.
9 p.m. ET: Houston (-1.5, 138.5) at Kansas
Houston (23-4, ranked 2nd) has dropped two straight and just fell to Arizona 73-66, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, Kansas (20-7, ranked 8th) has lost two of their last three and just got rolled by Cincinnati 84-68, losing outright as 8.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public says Houston is the better team and can’t possibly lose three straight. As a result, 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Cougars.
This lopsided support pushed Houston up from -1.5 to -2.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Kansas, dropping the line back down to Houston -1.5.
Essentially, we are looking at a sharp “line freeze” in favor of the Jayhawks, as the line is right back to where it opened despite the public hammering the Cougars.
Kansas is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Jayhawks are only receiving 31% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet nationally televised game of the night on ESPN.
At Circa, Kansas is receiving 21% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Houston winning by one point (69-68), which means the Jayhawks offer value at +1.5.
Kansas has the better effective field goal percentage (92nd vs 147th) and three-point shooting (90th vs 179th).
