Today we kick off a new week with a 19 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Florida A&M at Alabama State (-3.5, 140.5)
Florida A&M (8-11) has dropped two straight and just came up short against Alabama A&M 72-65, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Alabama State (6-15) has also lost two in a row and just fell to Bethune Cookman 69-54, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs.
This line opened with Alabama State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Alabama State laying short chalk at home, steaming the Hornets up from -2.5 to -3.5.
At DraftKings, Alabama State is taking in 54% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. At Circa, Alabama State is receiving 65% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
This line movement and bet split discrepancy is especially notable considering the fact this is an added/extra game with a 6-digit rotation number (306503-306504). This means that the tiny matchup is hard to find on a betting app and the public has little to no interest in this low-bet game. However, based on the line move we can infer that pros have taken a keen interest and sided with the home team.
Ken Pom has Alabama State winning by two points (74-72).
With this in mind, bettors looking to gain some added cushion may prefer an Alabama State moneyline play at -175.
Alabama State has the better offensive efficiency (309th vs 337th), offensive rebound percentage (150th vs 264th) and free-throw percentage (234th vs 344th).
Alabama State also does a better job of not turning it over on offense, ranking 296th in turnover percentage compared to 358th for Florida A&M.
Alabama State is 2-2 at home this season. Florida A&M is 2-9 on the road.
7:30 p.m. ET: Nicholls (-1.5, 147.5) at Northwestern State
Nicholls (9-13) just ended a five-game losing streak with a 72-68 win over East Texas A&M, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Northwestern State (6-15) has dropped four in a row and just fell to New Orleans 75-64, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Nicholls, driving the Colonels up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point road favorite.
At DraftKings, Nicholls is receiving 50% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.
Once again, this is a low bet, overlooked added/extra game (306511-306552) which gives more weight to the line move and bet splits since the public isn’t very interested in this matchup but pros have caused the market to move in favor of Nicholls.
Wisegutys have specifically looked to mitigate risk by targeting Nicholls on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, Nicholls is taking in 57% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars, another sharp discrepancy in favor of a straight up Colonels victory.
Nicholls has the better defensive efficiency (243rd vs 317th), offensive rebound percentage (293rd vs 330th) and does a better job of forcing turnovers on defense (12th vs 181st).
10 p.m. ET: Weber State at Sacramento State (-1.5, 164.5)
Weber State (11-11) just snapped a three-game losing skid with an 81-79 win over Idaho State but failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Sacramento State (8-13) has won two in a row and just held off Montana 86-79, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Weber State listed as a 1-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing Weber State, who has the better won-loss record.
However, despite Weber State receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen the line completely flip in favor of Sacramento State, pushing the Hornets from a 1-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Sacramento State at home.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Sacramento State on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, Sacramento State is taking in 51% of moneyline bets and 58% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Hornets victory.
Sacramento State has the better free-throw shooting (16th vs 245th) and takes better care of the ball on offense, ranking 64th in turnover percentage compared to 154th for Weber State.
This is also a revenge spot for the Hornets, who lost to the Wildcats 95-82 on the road back on January 3rd.
Sacramento State is 8-1 at home this season. Weber State is 3-7 on the road.
