Today we have a smaller than usual slate of College Basketball sweats on tap with only 11 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: Delaware State at South Carolina State (-1.5, 136.5)
Delaware State (5-14) has dropped five in a row and just came up short against Morgan State 80-79, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, South Carolina State (4-16) has won three of their last five and just took down Mid-Atlantic Christian 56-50.
This line opened with South Carolina State listed as a 1-point home favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with South Carolina State laying short chalk at home, driving the Bulldogs up from -1 to -1.5. Several shops are juicing up South Carolina State -1.5 (-115), signaling further liability and a possible move up to -2.
At DraftKings, South Carolina State is taking in 72% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in favor of the home team. At Circa, the Bulldogs are taking in over 90% of spread bets and dollars, further evidence of heavy one-way support from the wiseguys out in the desert.
This line move and bet split is especially important considering this a tiny “added/extra” game with a 6-digit rotation number (306615-306616). In other words, it’s a tiny unpopular matchup that the public is largely overlooking. However, based on the line move we can infer that pros have specifically targeted the matchup and sided with the home team.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing the Bulldogs on the moneyline at -125.
South Carolina State is 3-3 at home this season. Delaware State is 1-9 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Arizona (-1.5, 165.5) at BYU
Arizona (20-0, ranked 1st) is undefeated and just crushed West Virginia 88-53, easily covering as 17.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, BYU (17-2, ranked 13th) just took down Utah 91-78 but failed to cover as 19.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as high as a 3-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so low and 78% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the top ranked team in the nation.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Arizona fall from -3 to -1.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Arizona to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with BYU plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Cougars at home.
BYU is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Cougars are only receiving 22% of spread bets in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the night on ESPN.
At DraftKings, the Cougars are taking in 22% of spread bets and 25% of spread dollars. At Circa, BYU is receiving 28% of spread bets and 36% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home dog plus the points.
The Cougars have betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
BYU has the better free-throw shooting (72nd vs 140th) and also take care better of the ball, ranking 67th in turnover percentage compared to 80th for Arizona.
The Cougars are a perfect 11-0 at home this season.
