Today we kick off a new week with a 14 game College Basketball Conference Tournament slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: Campbell vs Monmouth (-1.5, 153.5)
This is the Coastal Athletic Conference semifinal.
Campbell (16-17) is the 9-seed, has won three straight and just upset UNC Wilmington 85-70 in the quarterfinal, winning outright as 7-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Monmouth (18-14) is the 4-seed, has won four in a row and just dismissed Drexel 65-57 in the quarterfinal, covering as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Monmouth listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Hawks, as Monmouth is being juiced up -1.5 (-120) and a few other books have crept up to as high as -2.5. We’ve never seen this line get down to -1 or less. Reading between the lines, all movement and liability has been in favor of Monmouth.
At DraftKings, Monmouth is taking in 74% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars. At Circa, Monmouth is receiving 50% of spread bets and over 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor.
Many sharps have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Monmouth on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, Monmouth is receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy support banking on a straight up Hawks victory.
Monmouth has the better defensive efficiency (134th vs 249th), three-point shooting (135th vs 247th), free-throw shooting (103rd vs 193rd), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (113th vs 306th) and force more turnovers on defense (33rd vs 141st).
Monmouth also enjoys a rest vs tired advantage, as Campbell is playing their third game in three days while Monmouth is playing their third game in seven days.
6 p.m. ET: New Orleans vs Texas A&M Corpus Christi (-2, 144.5)
This is the Southland Tournament quarterfinal.
New Orleans (15-17) is the 5-seed and just took down Houston Christian 73-60 in yesterday’s first round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Texas A&M Corpus Christi (17-14) is the 4-seed, has won three straight and just brushed aside East Texas A&M 84-71 in their regular season finale, covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Texas A&M Corpus Christi listed as low as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public sees two relatively even teams and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Texas A&M Corpus Christi creep up from -1.5 to -2, with some shops reaching as high as -2.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with Texas A&M Corpus Christi minus the points.
Ken Pom has Texas A&M Corpus Christi winning by one point (74-73).
As a result, many sharps have specifically targeted the Islanders on the moneyline at -135.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi has the better three-point shooting (184th vs 276th), defensive efficiency (103rd vs 214th), force more turnovers on defense (34th vs 324th) and limit their opponents to fewer offensive rebounds (92nd vs 318th).
The Islanders are allowing 68 PPG on defense compared to the Privateers giving up 78 PPG.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Islanders last played on March 2nd while the Privateers are playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
7 p.m. ET: Northern Kentucky vs Wright State (-1.5, 156.5)
This is the Horizon League Tournament semifinal.
Northern Kentucky (20-13) is the 7-seed and just dominated Green Bay 96-76 in yesterday’s second round, easily covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Wright State (21-11) is the 1-seed, has won three in a row and just destroyed Cleveland State 90-61 in their regular season finale, cruising as 14.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Northern Kentucky listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Wright State, flipping the Raiders from a 1.5-point neutral site dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Wright State.
At Circa, Wright State is receiving 75% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of heavy Vegas sharp action siding with the Raiders.
Ken Pom has Wright State winning by one point (78-77). He also has the Raiders ranked higher (144th vs 172nd).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by playing Wright State on the moneyline at -125.
Wright State has the better offensive efficiency (118th vs 168th), effective field goal percentage (57th vs 98th), offensive rebound percentage (78th vs 126th), three-point shooting (49th vs 208th) and free-throw shooting (109th vs 212th).
The Raiders also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Wright State last played on March 4th while Northern Kentucky is playing their second leg of a back-to-back.
