Today we kickoff the weekend with a loaded College Basketball slate of roughly 85 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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3 p.m. ET: UCLA vs Arizona (-4, 146.5)

UCLA (8-1, ranked 24th) has won seven straight and just took down Oregon 73-71, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Arizona (4-4) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 102-66 win over Southern Utah, covering as 28-point home favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Arizona favored if they’re an unranked .500 team against an 8-1 team that is ranked 24th? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? The public is hammering UCLA plus the points. However, despite 65% of spread bets taking UCLA at DraftKings, we’ve seen this line move further toward Arizona -2.5 to -4. Why would the oddsmakers hand out additional points to the public when they’re already playing UCLA to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Arizona, triggering sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in their favor. Arizona is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 71% of dollars at DraftKings, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Arizona has the better offensive efficiency (24th vs 50th), offensive rebound percentage (8th vs 37th) and free throw shooting (73% vs 70%). Arizona is averaging 87 PPG compared to 78 PPG for UCLA. This is technically a neutral site game, however Arizona will enjoy a friendly crowd as the game will be played at Footprint Center, the home of the Phoenix Suns. Those looking to fade the trendy dog and follow the sharp move but also protect themselves from a close win that may not cover the number could instead play the Wildcats on the moneyline at -175. Arizona is taking in 51% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, another sharp split in favor of the Wildcats winning straight up.

6 p.m. ET: Belmont (-1.5, 149) at Richmond

Belmont (8-2) has won four in a row and just outlasted MTSU 82-79, covering as 3-point home favorites. Conversely, Richmond (4-5) has dropped two of their last three and just got crushed by Auburn 98-54, failing to cover as 29.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Richmond as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite the 50/50 spread bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen Belmont move to a 1.5-point road favorite. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, we know based on the line move that pro bettors are backing Belmont on the road. Belmont has a notable edge offensively, boasting the superior offensive efficiency (91st vs 252nd), effective field goal percentage (55% vs 44%), offensive rebound percentage (30% vs 19%) and three point shooting (36% vs 26%). Belmont is averaging 83 PPG compared to 69 PPG for Richmond. The Bruins are 2-0 on the road this season. Those looking to mitigate some risk around a 1-point victory could instead play Belmont on the moneyline at -120.

7 p.m. ET: Marquette at Dayton (-1, 151)

Marquette (9-1, ranked 6th) just took down Wisconsin 88-74, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Dayton (8-2) has won three straight and just crushed Lehigh 86-62, covering as 22.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Marquette listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Marquette, who has the better won-loss record and ranking. However, despite 73% of spread bets backing Marquette at DraftKings, we’ve seen the line flip in favor of Dayton +1.5 to -1. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Dayton, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Dayton is only receiving 27% of spread bets but a hefty 63% of spread dollars at DraftKings, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Dayton is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving roughly one-quarter of bets in the most heavily bet primetime game of the night. Dayton also has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite vs a sell-high ranked opponent. Dayton has the better offensive efficiency (12th vs 16th), effective field goal percentage (58% vs 56%) and three point shooting (39% vs 34%). Those looking to mitigate some risk in a potential one-point victory could also elect to play Dayton on the moneyline at -115. Dayton is taking in 26% of moneyline bets but 67% of moneyline dollars at DraftKings, further evidence of wiseguy money playing the Flyers to win straight up. Dayton is 7-0 at home this season. Marquette is 1-1 on the road.

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