Today we have a massive Saturday College Basketball slate on tap with over 140 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Creighton at Villanova (-3, 143.5)

Creighton (15-6) has won six straight games and just held off Xavier 86-77, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Villanova (12-9) has dropped four of their last five games and just came up short against Marquette 87-74, failing to cover as 9-point road dogs.

This line opened with Villanova listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 56% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with road dog Creighton. However, despite a slight majority of tickets backing Creighton we’ve seen this line move further toward Villanova -1.5 to -3. Some shops are even inching up toward -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Villanova, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side.

At DraftKings, Villanova is taking in 44% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars. At Circa, Villanova is only receiving 33% of spread bets and 45% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Wildcats.

Ken Pom has Villanova winning by one point (74-73). As a result, those looking to follow the sharp move might prefer to play Villanova on the moneyline at -150. At DraftKings, Villanova is receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars, another sharp ticket vs dollar discrepancy.

Villanova has the better offensive efficiency (14th vs 42nd), offensive rebound percentage (34% vs 26%), three-point shooting (40% vs 35%) and free-throw shooting (80% vs 76%). Villanova also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on January 24th compared to Creighton last playing on January 29th.

3:30 p.m. ET: Vanderbilt at Oklahoma (-2.5, 151)

Vanderbilt (16-4, ranked 24th) has won three of their last four and just upset Kentucky 74-69, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (15-5) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Texas A&M 75-68 but covering as 8.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. At DraftKings, Oklahoma is taking in 54% of spread bets but a whopping 78% of spread dollars, indicating ever-so-slight public support but also heavy smart money backing the home chalk. Ken Pom has Oklahoma winning by five points (80-75). Those looking to follow the sharp bet split but also add some protection in the event of a close game could elect to play Oklahoma on the moneyline at -145.

Oklahoma has the better offensive efficiency (26th vs 38th), effective field goal percentage (56% vs 53%), three-point shooting (37% vs 33%) and free-throw percentage (80% vs 74%). The Sooners are limiting opponents to 28% three-point shooting percentage compared to 36% for the Commodores. Oklahoma has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Sooners are 9-2 at home this season.

4 p.m. ET: Kansas at Baylor (-2.5, 142)

Kansas (15-5, ranked 11th) has won three of their last four and just held off UCF 91-87 but failed to cover as 12-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Baylor (13-7) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to BYU 93-89 in overtime and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Baylor listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, the opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, should Baylor really be favored if they are unranked and Kansas is ranked? The public is all over Kansas as a short dog. However, despite 68% of spread bets backing Kansas we’ve seen this line move further toward Baylor -1.5 to -2.5. This indicates sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Baylor.

At DraftKings, Baylor is only receiving 24% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could instead elect to play Baylor on the moneyline -140.

Baylor has the better offensive efficiency (10th vs 29th), offensive rebound percentage (37% vs 32%) and three-point shooting (37% vs 34%). Baylor ranks 45th in forced turnover percentage compared to 261st for Kansas. Baylor is 9-1 at home this season.

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