Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 148 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:30 p.m. ET: Texas at Georgia (-2.5, 163.5)
Texas (17-9) has won five straight and just outlasted LSU 88-85 but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia (18-8) just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 86-78 win over Kentucky, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 59% of spread bets at DraftKings are grabbing the points with Texas.
However, despite Texas receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Georgia creep up from -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Georgia, as the line has moved toward the Bulldogs despite the public backing the Longhorns.
At DraftKings, Georgia is taking in 41% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars. At Circa, Georgia is receiving 50% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Ken Pom has Georgia winning by two points (86-84).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by targeting the Bulldogs on the moneyline at -150.
Georgia has the better defensive efficiency (67th vs 97th), force more turnovers on defense (57th vs 337th) and do a better job of limiting three pointers to their opponents (136th vs 228th).
This is also a revenge spot for the Bulldogs, who lost to the Longhorns 87-67 on the road back in late January.
8 p.m. ET: Providence at DePaul (-2.5, 155.5)
Providence (11-15) has dropped two straight and just fell to St. John’s 79-69, failing to cover as 7.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, DePaul (14-12) has won two in a row and just upset Seton Hall 69-57, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with DePaul listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on DePaul laying short chalk on their home court, steaming the Blue Demons up from -1.5 to -2.5, with some shops even briefly reaching as high as -3 or even -3.5. In other words, all movement and liability has sided with the home chalk.
At Circa, DePaul is taking in 48% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing DePaul on the moneyline at -150.
DePaul has the better defensive efficiency (49th vs 201st), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (85th vs 204th) and force more turnovers on defense (95th vs 354th).
The Blue Demons are 11-4 at home this season. Providence is 1-7 on the road.
This is also a revenge spot for DePaul, who lost to Providence 90-72 on the road two weeks ago.
8:30 p.m. ET: Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-1, 164.5)
Texas A&M (18-8) just snapped a four-game losing streak with an 80-77 win over Ole Miss but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Oklahoma (13-13) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Tennessee 89-66 and failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
The public is happy to back Texas A&M at a coin-flip price, especially since they have a far better won-loss record.
However, despite 58% of spread bets at DraftKings taking Texas A&M we’ve actually seen this line move toward Oklahoma, pushing the Sooners from a pick’em to a 1-point or even 1.5-point home favorite.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on Oklahoma, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing the Aggies.
At DraftKings, Oklahoma is receiving 42% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
Many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by targeting the Sooners on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, Oklahoma is receiving 31% of moneyline bets but 76% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro support coming down in favor of a straight up Sooners victory.
Oklahoma has the better offensive efficiency (28th vs 37th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (40th vs 66th).
Oklahoma is 9-4 at home this season. Texas A&M is 4-4 on the road.
This is also a revenge spot for the Sooners, who lost to the Aggies 83-76 on the road back in early January.
