Today the weekend kicks off with a massive slate of roughly 140 College Basketball games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Nebraska (-4.5, 139.5) at Minnesota
Nebraska (19-0, ranked 7th) is undefeated and just brushed aside Washington 76-66 but failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Minnesota (10-9) has dropped four in a row and just came up short against Ohio State 82-74 in overtime, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
This public can’t believe this line is so short and 82% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the undefeated Cornhuskers.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Nebraska fall from -5.5 to -4.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Golden Gophers despite the public hammering the Cornhuskers.
Minnesota is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Golden Gophers are only receiving 18% of spread bets at DraftKings in one of the most heavily bet early games on FS1.
At Circa, the Golden Gophers are receiving 67% of spread bets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in the desert.
Minnesota has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog against a sell-high popular ranked opponent.
The Golden Gophers enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on January 20th compared to Nebraska last playing on January 21st.
Nebraska is expected to be without their 3rd leading scorer, Braden Frager (12.2 PPG), due to an ankle injury.
Minnesota is 9-2 at home this season.
1 p.m. ET: Georgia at Texas (-2.5, 167.5)
Georgia (16-3, ranked 21st) has won two in a row and just outlasted Missouri 74-72, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Texas (11-8) has dropped two straight and just fell to Kentucky 85-80 but managed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Texas listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is a Georgia getting points if they have the far better record and ranking?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 58% of spread bets are taking the points with the Bulldogs.
However, despite Georgia receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Texas -1.5 to -2.5, with some shops now inching up to -3 or even -3.5 on gameday. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Longhorns, as the line has moved toward Texas despite the public backing Georgia.
At DraftKings, Texas is taking in 42% of spread bets and a hefty 79% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” in favor of the unpopular home chalk.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing the Longhorns on the moneyline at -160.
At DraftKings, Texas is receiving 41% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Longhorns victory at home.
Short favorites -4 or less with a line move in their favor are 163-106 (61%) straight up with a 3% ROI this season.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 134-74 (64%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2020.
2 p.m. ET: Houston (-1.5, 140.5) at Texas Tech
Houston (17-1, ranked 6th) has won 11 straight and just crushed Arizona State 103-73, cruising as 18.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas Tech (15-4, ranked 12th) has won four in a row and just dismissed Baylor 92-73, easily covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 2-point road favorite.
The public think this line is a bit short and 61% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cougars.
However, despite receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Houston fall from -2 to -1.5. Much of the market is also juicing up the Texas Tech side (+1.5 at -115), signaling further liability on the home dog.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing Houston to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with the home underdog Red Raiders plus the points.
At DraftKings, Texas Tech is receiving 39% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in one of the most heavily bet games of the day on ESPN.
Conference home dogs with a line move in their favor, like Texas Tech here, are 53-39 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season.
This is also a revenge game for Texas Tech, who fell to the Cougars at Houston 69-65 in early January.
Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning the game by one point (72-71).
At DraftKings, the Red Raiders are receiving 42% of moneyline bets and 53% of moneyline dollars, a wiseguy split in favor of a straight up victory for the home team (+100).
Texas Tech is 10-0 at home this season.
The Red Raiders have the better effective field goal percentage (29th vs 146th) and three-point shooting (14th vs 166th).
