Today we have a loaded Saturday slate of College Hoops on tap with nearly 150 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: George Mason and St. Bonaventure (-1.5, 142.5)
George Mason (19-2) has won ten of their last eleven and just took down Davidson 60-52, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure (13-8) has won two of their last three and just upset Duquesne 87-79, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with St. Bonaventure listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a 19-2 team an underdog against a team with a far worse won-loss record?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 85% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to back George Mason.
However, despite this lopsided support in favor of George Mason we’ve seen St. Bonaventure remain steady as a roughly 1.5-point favorite.
This signals a sharp line freeze in favor of the Bonnies, as the line has stayed right where it’s at even though the public is pounding the Patriots.
St. Bonaventure is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Bonnies are only receiving 17% of spread bets in a heavily bet early evening matchup.
Those looking to gain some added cushion in the event of a close game could also target St. Bonaventure on the moneyline at -115.
The Bonnies have the better three-point shooting (28th vs 175th) and free-throw shooting (27th vs 176th).
8 p.m. ET: Washington at Northwestern (-1.5, 145.5)
Washington (11-10) has dropped four of their last five and just fell to Illinois 75-66 but managed to cover as 12.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Northwestern (10-11) has won two of their last three and just crushed Penn State 94-73, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Northwestern listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Wildcats laying short chalk at home, as Northwestern is being juiced up -1.5 (-115) with a few other books inching toward -2.
At DraftKings, Northwestern is taking in 59% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Ken Pom has Northwestern winning by one point (74-73).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk and protect themselves by playing Northwestern on the moneyline (-125).
At DraftKings, the Wildcats are taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, a one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of a straight up Northwestern victory.
Northwestern has the better offensive efficiency (55th vs 68th), effective field goal percentage (117th vs 227th) and do a better job of limiting turnovers on offense (4th vs 61st).
Northwestern is 7-5 at home. Washington is 2-6 on the road.
10:30 p.m. ET: Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga (-9.5, 144.5)
Saint Mary’s (19-3) has won two straight and just held off Portland 75-69 but failed to cover as 14.5-point road favorites. Similarly, Gonzaga (21-1) just outlasted San Francisco 68-66 but failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Gonzaga listed as high as a 10.5-point home favorite.
The public isn’t scared off by the big chalk and expects a Gonzaga blowout win on their home court.
However, despite receiving 79% of spread bets we’ve seen Gonzaga fall from -10.5 to -9.5, with some shops inching down to -9.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Zags to begin with? Because respected smart money has grabbed Saint Mary’s plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Gaels.
Saint Mary’s is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Gaels are only receiving roughly one-fifth of tickets in one of the most heavily bet nationally televised late-night games on ESPN.
At DraftKings, the Gaels are taking in 21% of spread bets but a whopping 76% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in their favor.
Saint Mary’s has additional betting system value as a buy-low unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
The Gaels have the better three-point shooting (38th vs 93rd), offensive rebound percentage (22nd vs 32nd) and free-throw shooting (1st vs 286th).
