Today we kick off the weekend with a 20 game College Basketball Conference Tournament slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: San Diego State vs Utah State (-1.5, 144.5)
This is the Mountain West Tournament championship game.
San Diego State (22-10) is the 2-seed and just held off New Mexico 64-62 in the semifinal but failed to cover as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Utah State (27-6) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Nevada 79-66 in the semifinal, easily covering as 6.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Utah State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with the short chalk, as several books have juiced up Utah State -1.5 (-115) and hinted at a move up to -2. We have never seen this line get juiced down or fall toward -1 or less. In other words, all liability has come down on the Aggies minus the points.
At DraftKings, Utah State is taking in 70% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Utah State winning by three points (76-73). He also has the Aggies ranked higher (32nd vs 46th).
Many sharps have looked to gain some added cushion in the event of a close game by targeting Utah State on the moneyline at -125.
At DraftKings, Utah State is receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Utah State is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up Aggies victory.
Utah State has the better offensive efficiency (29th vs 100th), effective field goal percentage (15th vs 111th), three-point shooting (104th vs 145th), two-point field goal percentage (11th vs 113th), offensive rebound percentage (82nd vs 221st) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (106th vs 214th).
8:30 p.m. ET: Kennesaw State (-2.5, 139.5) vs Louisiana Tech
This is the Conference USA Tournament championship game.
Kennesaw State (20-13) is the 6-seed and just took down Sam Houston 79-73 in the semifinal, winning outright as 2-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (20-13) is the 4-seed and just outlasted Missouri State 69-66 in the semifinal, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Kennesaw State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and 59% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking Louisiana Tech, who is the higher seeded team.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Louisiana Tech we’ve actually seen the line move further toward Kennesaw State -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Kennesaw State, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing Louisiana Tech.
At DraftKings, Kennesaw State is receiving 41% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Kennesaw State winning by two points (73-71). He also has the Owls ranked higher (169th vs 196th).
As a result, bettors may prefer to mitigate some risk by playing Kennesaw State on the moneyline at -135.
Kennesaw State has the better offensive efficiency (146th vs 281st), effective field goal percentage (204th vs 312th), three-point shooting (179th vs 346th), free-throw shooting (270th vs 343rd) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (190th vs 291st).
12 a.m. ET: California Baptist vs Utah Valley (-2.5, 137.5)
This is the WAC Tournament championship game.
California Baptist (24-8) is the 2-seed and just handled Utah Tech 86-72 in the semifinal, easily covering as 8.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Utah Valley (25-7) is the 1-seed and just edged UT Arlington 67-65 in the semifinal but failed to cover as 8.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Utah Valley listed as low as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the short chalk, driving Utah Valley up from -1.5 to -2.5 with some shops reaching as high as -3 or even -3.5.
At DraftKings, Utah Valley is receiving 76% of spread bets and a whopping 97% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Utah Valley winning by two points (72-70). He also has the Wolverines ranked higher (89th vs 108th).
With this in mind, many pros have elected to protect themselves by playing Utah Valley on the moneyline at -150.
At DraftKings, Utah Valley is taking in 77% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy sharp money playing the Wolverines to earn a straight up victory.
Utah Valley has the better offensive efficiency (104th vs 183rd), effective field goal percentage (37th vs 299th), two-point field goal percentage (26th vs 314th) and force more turnovers on defense (10th vs 155th).
