Today we kick off the month of March with a massive 132-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

***Top College Basketball Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

1 p.m. ET: Arkansas at South Carolina (-1.5, 138.5)

Arkansas (17-11) has won two straight and just held off Texas 86-81, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, South Carolina (11-17) has dropped 14 of their last 15 games and just got rolled by Missouri 101-71, failing to cover as 12.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are pounding the Razorbacks, who have the far better won-loss record. However, despite Arkansas receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen this line flip to South Carolina -1.5 at home. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Gamecocks, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, South Carolina is only receiving 31% of spread bets but 51% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. For those looking to mitigate some risk, the Gamecocks are -120 on the moneyline. At DraftKings, South Carolina is taking in 25% of moneyline bets but 44% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on a straight up victory for the home team.

South Carolina has the better offensive rebound percentage (31% vs 27%) does a better job at limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (62nd vs 131st).

The Gamecocks enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on February 25th compared to Arkansas last playing February 26th. Arkansas will also miss their leading scorer Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG) due to injury.

4 p.m. ET: Utah State at Colorado State (-2.5, 150.5)

Utah State (24-5) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, getting crushed by Boise State 82-65 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Colorado State (19-9) has won four in a row and just brushed aside Air Force 77-55, covering as 12.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Colorado State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Rams laying short chalk at home, steaming Colorado State up from -1.5 to -2.5. The movement is especially notable because the public is leaning toward Utah State plus the points (57% of spread bets at DraftKings), yet the line moved in favor of contrarian Colorado State. In other words, wiseguys seem to be fading the trendy dog Aggies and instead backing the unpopular home favorite.

Ken Pom has Colorado State winning by one point (77-76). As a result, many bettors have bypassed the spread and instead elected to play the Rams on the moneyline at -130. At DraftKings, Colorado State is taking in 54% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.

Colorado State has the better defensive efficiency (64th vs 128th) and free-throw shooting (78% vs 70%). The Rams rank 8th in the country at limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents. The Aggies rank 187th.

Colorado State enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on February 25th while Utah State last played on February 26th.

Colorado State is 12-2 at home this season.

4:30 p.m. ET: Creighton at Xavier (-2.5, 149.5)

Creighton (20-8) has won two in a row and just dismissed DePaul 75-65 but failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Xavier (18-10) has won four straight and just outlasted Seton Hall 73-66 but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Xavier listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is grabbing the points with Creighton, who has the better won-loss record. However, despite 59% of spread bets at DraftKings backing Creighton, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Xavier -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Xavier, as the line has been adjusted in their direction despite being the unpopular play.

Ken Pom has Xavier winning by one point (75-74). With this in mind, value driven bettors may prefer to pay up and take Xavier on the moneyline at -140. At DraftKings, Xavier is receiving 51% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Musketeers earning a straight up victory on their home court.

Xavier has the better three-point shooting (38% vs 34%), free-throw shooting (79% vs 74%) and takes better care of the ball (141st in turnovers vs 247th). Xavier also does a better job at forcing turnovers (139th vs 361st).

Xavier has a notable rest advantage, having last played on February 23rd while Creighton last played on February 26th.

The Musketeers are 13-2 at home this season.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR