Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 91 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Missouri (-2.5, 160.5)
Arkansas (22-8, ranked 20th) has won three of their last four and just dominated Texas 105-85, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, Missouri (20-10) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Oklahoma 80-64 and failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Arkansas listed as high as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Despite Arkansas missing leading scorer Darius Acuff (22.2 PPG) due to injury, 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are still rushing to the window to back Arkansas, who has the better record and ranking.
However, despite the public pounding the Razorbacks we’ve seen this line flip in favor of Missouri, pushing the Tigers to a 2.5-point home favorite.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Missouri, as the line has moved in favor of the Tigers despite the public backing the Razorbacks.
At DraftKings, Missouri is taking in 31% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars, a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Tigers at home.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by targeting the Tigers on the moneyline at -150. At DraftKings, Missouri is receiving 27% of moneyline bets and 46% of moneyline dollars.
Missouri has the better offensive rebound percentage (33rd vs 122nd) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (169th vs 185th).
The Tigers are 15-2 at home and today is Senior Day. The Razorbacks are 4-5 on the road.
Missouri enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on March 3rd while Arkansas last played on March 4th.
This is a revenge spot for the Tigers, who lost to the Razorbacks on the road 94-86 back in late February.
2 p.m. ET: Louisville at Miami (-1.5, 156.5)
Louisville (21-9) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 77-62 win over Syracuse, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Miami (24-6, ranked 22nd) has won three straight and just held off SMU 77-69, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Louisville listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Following the news that Louisville leading scorer Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG) would miss this game with a back injury, we saw sharp steam hit Miami, pushing the Hurricanes from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, Miami is taking in wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement.
At Circa, Miami is taking in 78% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating heavy one-way support on the Hurricanes from the wiseguys in the desert.
Many pros have gained some added cushion by specifically targeting the Hurricanes on the moneyline (-130).
At DraftKings, Miami is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of sharp action backing a straight up victory for the home team.
Miami has the better offensive rebound percentage (12th vs 84th) and force more turnovers on defense (70th vs 172nd).
Miami is 15-2 at home this season. Louisville is 3-7 on the road.
This is also Senior Day for the Hurricanes.
4 p.m. ET: Boise State at Colorado State (-1.5, 143.5)
Boise State (19-11) has won four in a row and just dismissed San Diego State 86-77, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Colorado State (20-10) has won eight straight and just upset New Mexico 82-74, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Colorado State a short 1-point home favorite.
Sharps have quietly laid the chalk with the Rams, pushing Colorado State up from -1 to -1.5.
At DraftKings, Colorado State is receiving 80% of spread bets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp one-way split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Colorado State winning by two points (73-71).
With this in mind, many pros have elected to mitigate some risk by playing the Rams on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, Colorado State is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy sharp action playing the Rams to earn a straight up victory on Senior Day.
When two Mountain West teams face off in conference play, the home favorite is 50-7 (88%) straight up with an 11% ROI this season.
Colorado State has the better offensive efficiency (47th vs 61st), effective field goal percentage (8th vs 136th) and three-point shooting (5th vs 137th).
Colorado State is 12-4 at home and today is Senior Day. Boise State is 5-5 on the road.
This is also a revenge spot for the Rams, who lost to the Broncos 79-73 on the road back in mid January.
