Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded College Basketball slate featuring nearly 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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12 p.m. ET: St. John’s at Marquette (-3.5, 144.5)

St. John’s (26-4, ranked 6th) has won five in a row and just took down Seton Hall 71-61 but failed to cover as 19.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Marquette (22-8, ranked 20th) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Connecticut 72-66 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Marquette listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 75% of spread bets at DraftKings are grabbing the points with St. John’s, who has the far better record and ranking.

However, despite the public pounding the Red Storm, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Marquette -2.5 to -3.5. Some shopes even briefly touched as high as -4.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Golden Eagles, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the highly unpopular play.

At DraftKings, Marquette is only taking in 25% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars. At Circa, Marquette is receiving 55% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.

Ken Pom has Marquette winning by two points (71-69). As a result, many wiseguys have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Golden Eagles on the moneyline (-175). At DraftKings, Marquette is receiving 30% of moneyline bets and 51% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy smart money in favor of a Golden Eagles straight up win.

Marquette has the better offensive efficiency (34th vs 70th), effective field goal percentage (52% vs 50%), three-point shooting (32% vs 30%) and free-throw shooting (73% vs 69%).

Marquette is 14-2 at home this season. This is a revenge play for Marquette, who lost to St. John’s on the road 70-64 in early February. It’s also Senior Day for the Golden Eagles, whose top three scorers will all be playing their final home game.

Big East home favorites are 56-11 (84%) straight up in conference play this season.

12 p.m. ET: Mississippi State at Arkansas (-1.5, 147.5)

Mississippi State (20-10, ranked 25th) has dropped two of their last three and just fell to Texas 87-82 in overtime, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Conversely, Arkansas (18-12) has won three of their last four and just brushed aside Vanderbilt 90-77, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 1-point home favorite. Wiseguys have quietly laid the short chalk with the Razorbacks, pushing Arkansas up from -1 to -1.5. At DraftKings, Arkansas is receiving 62% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split. At Circa, the Razorbacks are taking in 95% of spread bets and 99% of spread dollars, indicating massive one-way support out in Vegas.

Ken Pom has Arkansas winning by three points (74-71). Many savvy bettors have specifically targeted the Razorbacks on the moneyline (-120). At DraftKings, Arkansas is receiving 53% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars, another sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up home win.

Arkansas has the better defensive efficiency (15th vs 45th), three-point shooting (33% vs 31%) and free-throw shooting (73% vs 70%). The Razorbacks do a better job of limiting their opponents’ effective field goal percentage (48% vs 52%).

Arkansas is 12-4 at home. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 126-70 (64%) straight up since 2020.

4:30 p.m. ET: Arizona at Kansas (-4.5, 152.5)

Arizona (20-10, ranked 24th) has rotated wins and losses over their last six games and just outlasted Arizona State 113-100 but failed to cover as 17.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Kansas (19-11) has dropped two straight and just fell to Houston 65-59 but covered as 9.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Kansas listed as low as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Jayhawks at home, steaming Kansas up from -2.5 to -4.5.

At DraftKings, Kansas is receiving 55% of spread bets and a whopping 86% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kansas is receiving 69% of spread bets and a hefty 94% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Jayhawks at home.

Ken Pom has Kansas winning by three points (76-73). With this in mind, many pros have paid up and taken the Jayhawks on the moneyline (-185). At DraftKings, Kansas is receiving 58% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on a Kansas straight up victory.

Kansas has the better defensive efficiency (6th vs 25th) and three-point shooting (34% vs 32%). The Jayhawks are limiting their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 45% compared to the Wildcats allowing 48%.

The Jayhawks enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on March 3rd compared to the Wildcats last playing on March 4th.

Kansas is 13-3 at home this season. It’s also Senior Day for the Jayhawks, who will be honoring three Senior starters.

Big 12 home favorites are 86-27 (76%) straight up in conference play this season.

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