Today we wrap up the weekend and kick off the month of February with a 25 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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12 p.m. ET: Samford at Western Carolina (-1.5, 154.5)
Samford (10-12) has dropped five of their last six and just came up short against Furman 78-73 but managed to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Western Carolina has won two straight and just held off East Tennessee State 90-88, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Western Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which way to go.
However, despite a virtual 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Western Carolina creep up from -1 to -1.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect a line to move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with the short home chalk.
At DraftKings, Western Carolina is taking in 51% of spread bets and a hefty 72% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Ken Pom has Western Carolina winning by two points (79-77).
With this in mind, savvy bettors looking to protect themselves may prefer a Western Carolina moneyline play at -120.
At DraftKings, Western Carolina is receiving 47% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Catamounts victory on their home court.
Western Carolina is 6-2 at home. Samford is 3-8 on the road.
12 p.m. ET: Rhode Island at Duquesne (-2.5, 144.5)
Rhode Island (13-8) has won three straight and just outlasted Dayton 81-76 in overtime, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Duquesne (11-10) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just fell to St. Bonaventure 87-79, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Duquesne listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Duquesne move from -1.5 to -2.5, with some shops inching up to -3.
Once again, this 50/50 line move signals smart money backing the home team, with one way liability in favor of the home chalk.
At Circa, Duquense is taking in 88% of spread bets and a whopping 95% of spread dollars, a massive one-way split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Duquesne has buy-low betting system value as a bounce-back favorite off a loss against a sell-high dog on a winning streak.
Ken Pom has Duquesne winning by one point (74-73).
As a result, bettors looking to protect themselves in the event of a one-possession final score may prefer a Dukes moneyline play at -150.
Duquesne has the better offensive efficiency (136th vs 151st), effective field goal percentage (63rd vs 147th) and three-point shooting (144th vs 316th).
The Duke also do a better job of limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (71st vs 182nd).
Duquesne is averaging 83 PPG on offense compared to 73 PPG for Rhode Island.
1 p.m. ET: Alabama at Florida (-8.5, 175.5)
Alabama (14-6, ranked 23rd) has won three of their last four and just crushed Missouri 90-64, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Florida (15-6, ranked 19th) has won six of their last seven and just dominated South Carolina 95-48, cruising as 14-point road favorites.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is too high and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings are grabbing the points with road dog Alabama.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing the Crimson Tide we’ve actually seen this line tick up further in favor of Florida, pushing the Gators up from -7 to -8.5 across the market.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Florida, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing Alabama.
Florida offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Gators are only receiving 37% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet nationally televised game of the day on ABC.
At Circa, Florida is taking in 40% of spread bets and 93% of spread dollars, a significant “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the pros out in Vegas.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite has gone 144-121 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2021.
Florida has the better defensive efficiency (8th vs 63rd) and offensive rebound percentage (2nd vs 127th).
The Gators are allowing 71 PPG compared to the Crimson Tide giving up 82 PPG.
