March Madness is back and bettors have four Sweet 16 games to get down on tonight. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7:09 p.m. ET: BYU vs Alabama (-4.5, 175.5)
BYU (26-9) is the 6-seed and just upset Wisconsin 91-89 in the second round, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Alabama (27-8) is the 2-seed and just crushed Saint Mary’s 80-66 in the second round, easily covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Alabama listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. Early in the week, we saw the Crimson Tide rise up from -4.5 to -5.5. However, over the past 24-hours or so we’ve seen sharp buyback on BYU +5.5, dropping the line back down 4.5. Essentially, late movement seems to be breaking back toward the Cougars plus the points.
At Circa, BYU is only receiving 43% of spread bets but 55% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Alabama winning by five points (89-84). As a result, savvy value-driven bettors would be wise to shop around as a few outlier books are still hanging +5 instead of +4.5.
BYU has the better effective field goal percentage (6th vs 11th), three-point shooting (28th vs 116th) and force more turnovers on defense (189th vs 352nd). The Cougars enjoy a one-day rest advantage as well, having last played on March 22nd while the Crimson Tide last played on March 23rd.
Wiseguys are also expecting a higher scoring game as the total has been steamed up from 173.5 to 175.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 52% of bets and 68% of dollars, a notable sharp split in favor of a shootout. Both teams rank top 11 in the country in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Alabama is also the fastest team in the nation, ranking 1st in tempo.
9:39 p.m. ET: Arizona vs Duke (-9.5, 154.5)
Arizona (24-12) is the 4-seed and just outlasted Oregon 87-73 in the second round but failed to cover as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Duke (33-3) is the 1-seed and just destroyed Baylor 89-66 in the second round, cruising as 13-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 9-point neutral site favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 61% of spread bets at DraftKings and 68% of spread bets at Circa are laying the points with the Blue Devils. This lopsided betting has pushed Duke up from -9 to -9.5. However, we are now seeing some sneaky buyback on Arizona as several shops are juicing up the Wildcats +9.5 (-115).
At Circa, Arizona is only taking in 32% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Wildcats are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as they are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game.
Ken Pom has Duke winning by eight points (81-73), which provides actionable value on Arizona at the current price (+9.5).
Arizona has the better offensive rebound percentage (16th vs 48th) and is also a “dog who can score” system match (82.2 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or backdoor cover this big spread.
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total up from 152.5 to 154.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 86% of bets and 90% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 73% of bets and 82% of dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of a higher scoring game.
