The NCAA Tournament is on hiatus as we await the Final Four. However, college basketball bettors can still get down on postseason action today as we have four College Basketball Crown (CBC) matchups to choose from.
Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
3 p.m. ET: Utah (-2.5, 157.5) vs Butler
Utah (16-16) has lost five of their last six games and just fell to UCF 87-72 in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, losing outright as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Butler (14-19) has also dropped five of their last six games and just got rolled by St. John’s 78-57 in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 12.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Butler -1 and others opening Utah -1. Regardless of the opener, we’ve seen sharp one-way movement in favor of Utah, steaming the Utes up to a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
This movement is especially notable because the public is hammering Butler (65% of spread bets at DraftKings), yet the line has moved toward Utah. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular Utes.
At Circa, Utah is only receiving 32% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split out in Vegas, which, by the way, is where this game will be played (MGM Grand Garden Arena).
Utah has the better defensive efficiency (83rd vs 148th), offensive rebound percentage (37th vs 278th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (76th vs 107th). Utah also averages more rebounds per game (40 vs 35).
Sharps seem to be expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 155.5 to 157.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 45% of bets and 52% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in only 33% of bets but 91% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the over.
8:30 p.m. ET: Nebraska (-5.5, 155) vs Arizona State
Nebraska (17-14) has lost six of their last seven games and just fell to Iowa 83-68 in their regular season finale, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona State (13-19) has dropped 11 of their last 12 games and just fell to Kansas State 71-66 in the first round of the Big 12 tournament but managed to cover as 5.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Nebraska listed as high as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. The public sees two struggling teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen Nebraska fall from -6.5 to -5.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with Arizona State plus the points.
At DraftKings, Arizona State is receiving 48% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arizona State is taking in only 37% of spread bets but a whopping 95% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the underdog Sun Devils. The Circa bet split is especially meaningful because, once again, this game will be played in Las Vegas, a stone’s throw away from the Circa Sportsbook.
Ken Pom has Nebraska winning by three points (74-71), which provides actionable value on the Sun Devils at the current price (+5.5.)
Arizona State has a notable edge beyond the arc, ranking 70th in three-point shooting (36%) compared to Nebraska ranking 242nd (33%). The Sun Devils also block more shots per game (12.1, ranking 51st vs 9.1, ranking 183rd).
Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total from 153 to 155. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 47% of bets and 81% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 50% of bets but an overwhelming 95% of dollars. Both books are showing a massive sharp bet split in favor of a higher scoring game.
