Today March Madness continues with a pair of Elite 8 matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both NCAA Tournament games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:09 p.m. ET: Iowa vs Illinois (-7, 138.5)
Iowa (24-12) is the 9-seed and just edged Nebraska 77-71 in the Sweet 16, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Illinois (27-8) is the 3-seed and just upset Houston 65-55 in the Sweet 16, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Illinois listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
The public is split down the middle at DraftKings with roughly 50% of spread bets taking the points with Cinderella Iowa and the other 50% of spread bets laying the points with the chalk favorite Fighting Illini.
It seems as though oddsmakers have set a near perfect line generating competitive two-way action as some books have fallen down from Illinois -7 to -6.5 while a few others have risen from Illinois -7 to -7.5. This creates an actionable “shop for the best line” opportunity for bettors who have multiple “outs” and can take advantage of the market discrepancy.
While the bets and dollars are pretty much 50/50 at DraftKings, we are seeing sharps quietly lean toward Iowa +7.5 in the desert. At Circa, the Hawkeyes are taking in 62% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Illinois winning by seven points (78-69), which offers a slight edge on Iowa plus the hook (+7.5).
Iowa has the better offensive efficiency (15th vs 37th), three-point shooting (93rd vs 108th), two-point field goal percentage (13th vs 24th) and force more turnovers on defense (16th vs 365th).
Iowa has additional betting system value as a conference dog, as both teams hail from the Big Ten, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
8:49 p.m. ET: Purdue vs Arizona (-5.5, 153.5)
Purdue (30-8) is the 2-seed and just edged Texas 79-77 in the Sweet 16 but failed to cover as 8.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Arizona (35-2) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Arkansas 109-88 in the Sweet 16, easily covering as 8.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Arizona listed as high as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with the Wildcats.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Arizona fall from -6.5 to -5.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Arizona to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Purdue plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Boilermakers.
Purdue has heightened “bet against the public” value as the Boilermakers are only receiving one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised late night game on TBS.
At Circa, Purdue is taking in 41% of spread bets and a hefty 73% of spread dollars, a siazble “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy from the wiseguys in the desert.
Ken Pom has Arizona winning by four points (80-76), which offers actionable value on Purdue at the current price (+5.5).
The Boilermakers have buy-low value as an unpopular dog who failed to cover their previous game against a sell-high favorite who easily covered their previous game.
Purdue has additional betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (82 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or earn a back door cover.
Purdue has the better offensive efficiency (1st vs 4th), effective field goal percentage (10th vs 35th), three-point shooting (11th vs 36th), free-throw shooting (90th vs 163rd) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (16th vs 78th).
NCAA Tournament Champion (DraftKings)
Arizona +245
Duke +255
Michigan +300
Illinois +750
Purdue +1300
Connecticut +1900
Tennessee +3000
Iowa +5500
