Today March Madness continues with a pair of Elite 8 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee vs Michigan (-7.5, 146.5)
Tennessee (25-11) is the 6-seed and just took down Iowa State 76-62 in the Sweet 16, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Michigan (34-3) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Alabama 90-77 in the Sweet 16, covering as 9.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Michigan listed as low as a 7-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Wolverines, pushing Michigan up from -7 to -7.5.
The Wolverines are also being juiced up -7.5 (-115) with a few other books inching up to -8 or even touching -8.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the side of Michigan minus the points.
At DraftKings, Michigan is taking in 67% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars. At Circa, Michigan is receiving 62% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action.
Michigan has the better offensive efficiency (6th vs 31st), defensive efficiency (2nd vs 12th), effective field goal percentage (6th vs 143rd), three-point shooting (30th vs 175th) and free-throw shooting (118th vs 287th).
5:05 p.m. ET: Connecticut vs Duke (-5.5, 134.5)
Connecticut (32-5) is the 2-seed and just outlasted Michigan State 67-63 in the Sweet 16, covering as 1.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Duke (35-2) is the 1-seed and just edged St. John’s 80-75 in the Sweet 16 but failed to cover as 6.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Duke listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps are expecting a close game and have scooped up the points with the Huskies, as Connecticut is being juiced up +5.5 (-115) while several other books have inched down to +5 or even +4.5.
This line has never ticked up to Duke -6 or more, it has only stayed the same or dipped down toward Connecticut. Reading between the lines, this signals smart money liability on the Huskies plus the points.
At DraftKings, Connecticut is taking in 69% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, Connecticut is receiving 75% of spread bets and a whopping 88% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Huskies, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Ken Pom has Duke winning by five points (71-66), which offers an edge for betters who can shop around and secure Connecticut +5.5.
Connecticut has the better three-point shooting (126th vs 142nd), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (7th vs 12th), hold their opponents to a better three-point shooting percentage (21st vs 30th) and force more turnovers on defense (101st vs 120th).
March Madness Champion (DraftKings)
Arizona +170
Michigan, Duke +300
Illinois +600
Connecticut +1500
Tennessee +3500
