Today March Madness returns with a pair of NCAA Tournament Final Four matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:09 p.m. ET: Illinois (-1.5, 139.5) vs Connecticut
Illinois (26-8) is the 3-seed and just outlasted Iowa 71-59 in the Elite 8, covering as 6.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Connecticut (33-5) is the 2-seed and just shocked Duke 73-72 in the Elite 8, winning outright as 5.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Illinois listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Illinois fall from -2.5 to -1.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect the line to move an inch if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers jumped on Connecticut plus the points, specifically at +2.5.
At Circa, the Huskies are receiving 35% of spread bets and a hefty 72% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of Vegas wiseguys grabbing the points with the Huskies.
However, now that the line has fallen down to Illinois -1.5, we’re starting to see some gameday buyback on the Fighting Illini at a reduce price, as Illinois is being heavy juiced back up -1.5 (-115 or -120), with some shops inching back up to -2.
Ken Pom has Illinois winning by four points (74-70), which provides actionable value on Illinois at the current price.
With this in mind, many wiseguys have looked to protect themselves by forgoing the spread and instead go with Illinois at a cheap moneyline price (-130).
At DraftKings, Illinois is receiving 37% of moneyline bets and 49% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Illinois is taking in 51% of moneyline bets and 55% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy split in favor of a straight up Illinois victory.
Illinois has the better offensive efficiency (1st vs 26th), offensive rebound percentage (3rd vs 30th), free-throw shooting (16th vs 210th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (10th vs 178th).
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it inch down slightly from 140 to 139.5.
This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (69% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. On the flip side, Circa is showing 55% of bets and 62% of dollars playing the over in Vegas.
Ken Pom’s projected final score (144 total points), would provide actionable value on the over 139.5.
8:54 p.m. ET: Michigan (-1.5, 157.5) vs Arizona
Michigan (35-3) is the 1-seed and just destroyed Tennessee 95-62 in the Elite 8, easily covering as 8.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona (36-2) is also a 1-seed and just brushed aside Purdue 79-64 in the Elite 8, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with a few shops opening Arizona a slight 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Once again, the public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Michigan flip from a pick’em or slight 1.5-point neutral dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. This signals smart money playing the Wolverines.
At DraftKings, Michigan is receiving 50% of spread bets and 53% of spread dollars. However, Circa is showing 45% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars buying low on Arizona +1.5.
Ken Pom has Michigan winning by one point (80-79).
As a result, we’ve seen a bevy of smart money look to gain some added wiggle room by playing the Wolverines on the moneyline (-120).
At Circa, Michigan is taking in 41% of moneyline bets and a massive 85% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the desert pros in favor of a straight up Michigan victory.
Michigan has the better offensive efficiency (6th vs 35th), three-point shooting (30th vs 36th), two-point field goal percentage (2nd vs 52nd) and free-throw shooting (121st vs 153rd).
Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 156.5 to 157.5.
At Circa, the over is receiving 46% of bets and 57% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game.
Ken Pom’s projected final score (159 total points) provides value on the over 157.5.
Both teams average nearly 90 points per game on offense (Michigan 88 PPG and Arizona 87 PPG).
Both teams are also top 5 in offensive efficiency (Michigan 5th and Arizona 4th).
Michigan is shooting 51% from the field and Arizona 50%.
March Madness Champion (DraftKings)
Arizona/Michigan +175
Illinois +400
Connecticut +550
