Today the first round of March Madness continues with 16 more NCAA Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings are Circa Sports.
2 p.m. ET: Colorado State (-1.5, 146.5) vs Memphis
Colorado State (25-9) is the 12-seed and just beat Boise State 69-56 to win the Mountain West Tournament, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Memphis (29-5) is the 5-seed and just dimissed UAB 84-72 to win the AAC Tournament, covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Colorado State listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen Memphis fall from +3 to +1.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Tigers plus the points.
At Circa, Memphis is taking in 50% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating the bigger, sharper wagers in their favor.
Memphis has the better offensive rebound percentage (35% vs 26%) and three-point shooting (38% vs 37%). The Tigers also force more turnovers on defense (73rd vs 202nd).
4:35 p.m. ET: Grand Canyon vs Maryland (-10.5, 150)
Grand Canyon (26-7) is the 13-seed and just took down Utah Valley 89-82 to win the WAC Tournament, covering as 4.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Maryland (25-8) is the 4-seed and just fell to Michigan 81-80 in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, losing outright as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Maryland listed as an 11.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have jumped on Grand Canyon plus the points, dropping Maryland from -11.5 to -10.5. Some shops are even down to Terps -10.
At DraftKings, Grand Canyon is receiving 53% of spread bets and 55% of spread dollars. At Circa, Grand Canyon is taking in 64% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Lopes.
Grand Canyon has the better offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 31%) and limit their opponents to a better two-point field goal percentage (24th vs 52nd).
The Lopes also enjoy an experience edge. Grand Canyon returns four of five starters from last year’s team that upset 5-seed St. Mary’s 75-66 in first round. Meanwhile, Maryland missed the NCAA Tournament last year.
9:45 p.m ET: Xavier vs Illinois (-3.5, 160.5)
Xavier (22-11) is the 11-seed and just outlasted Texas 86-80 in the First Four round, covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Illinois (21-12) is the 6-seed and just fell to Maryland 88-65 in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 1.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Illinois listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly leaned toward Xavier and the points, as we’ve seen the Musketeers get juiced up +3.5 (-115) and even fall to +3 at some shops.
At Circa, Xavier is only receiving 50% of spread bets but a whopping 81% of spread dollars, indicating public indecision but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Xavier has the better effective field goal percentage (54% vs 52%), three-point shooting (39% vs 31%) and free-throw shooting (79% vs 76%). The Musketeers also force more turnovers on defense (154th vs 360th). Xavier has value as a “dog who can score” system match (78 PPG), thereby increasing the chance that they can keep pace or back door cover.
The Musketeers also enjoy some momentum and confidence after earning a First Four win. Meanwhile, Illinois hasn’t played since March 14.
