March Madness ends tonight as 1-seeds Florida and Houston face off in the National Championship game. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8:50 p.m. ET: Florida (-1.5, 141.5) vs Houston
Florida (35-4) just held off Auburn 79-73 in the Final Four, covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Houston (35-4) just upset Duke 70-67 in the Final Four, winning outright as 4.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Florida listed as a 1-point or 1.5-point neutral site favorite, depending on the sportsbook. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with Florida.
However, despite Florida receiving 69% of spread bets at DraftKings the line has barely budged. In fact, most of the market is juicing up Houston +1.5 (-115) while others have fallen down to Houston +1. This signals liability on the unpopular dog.
Normally, if a short favorite is getting such lopsided support in a heavily bet championship game we would expect to see them rise up to -2 or higher. The fact that this line has remained stagnant, or even dipped slightly back to Houston despite such heavy Gators action signals a sharp line freeze on the Cougars plus the points. In other words, the oddsmakers refuse to move the line further toward the popular Gators side for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Cougars backers.
Houston has notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 31% of spread bets in the most heavily bet college basketball game of the season.
Ken Pom actually has Houston winning the game straight up (72-71), which provides actionable value on the Cougars plus the hook (+1.5). Ken Pom also has Houston ranked higher (2nd vs 3rd). Short dogs +2 or less are 3-1 ATS (75%) this March Madness.
Houston has the better defensive efficiency (1st vs 9th), three-point shooting (1st vs 70th) and takes better care of the ball (20th in turnover percentage vs 75th).
The Cougars also enjoy a quasi home-court advantage, as this game will be played at the Alamadome in San Antonio, Texas, about a 3-hour drive from the Houston campus.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 142 to 141.5. Some shops are even as low as 140.5. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 48% of bets and 59% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
Both teams rank top-9 in the country in defensive efficiency. Both teams rank top-5 in limiting their opponents effective field goal percentage. Houston ranks 360th in tempo, the 5th-slowest team in college basketball.
Unders are 37-29 (56%) with an 8% ROI this March Madness. The under is 10-4 (71%) with a 36% ROI in the NCAA championship game since 2010.
