The Sweet 16 is still 24-hours away. But luckily college basketball bettors can bide their time with a pair of NIT quarterfinal matchups to get down on tonight. Let’s examine where where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7 p.m. ET: Kent State at Loyola Chicago (-4.5, 144.5)
Kent State (24-11) just upset Stanford 77-75 in the second round, winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Loyola Chicago (24-11) just upset San Francisco 77-76, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Loyola Chicago listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with the Ramblers at home. However, despite receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Loyola Chicago fall from -5.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kent State plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
Ken Pom has Loyola Chicago winning by four points (70-66). This provides actionable value on the Golden Flashes at their current price, especially if you can shop around and find an outlier book still hanging +5. Ken Pom also has these teams ranked as virtual equals, with Loyola Chicago ranked 106th and Kent State 109th.
Kent State has the better defensive efficiency (83rd vs 95th), offensive rebound percentage (24th vs 196th) and free-throw shooting (75% vs 68%). The Golden Flashes also force more turnovers on defense (93rd vs 153rd).
Sharps also seem to be expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 141.5 to 144.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 55% of bets and 68% of dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
9 p.m. ET: UAB at UC Irvine (-4.5, 158.5)
UAB (24-12) just upset Santa Clara 88-84 in the second round, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, UC Irvine (30-6) just held off Jacksonville State 66-61 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with UC Irvine listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen UC Irvine fall from -5.5 to -4.5. Some shops are even down to -4.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the action is balanced and there is no need for the oddsmakers to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that wiseguy money has sided with UAB plus the points.
At Circa, UAB is receiving 44% of spread bets but a whopping 96% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing the road dog.
Road dogs with line movement in their favor, like UAB here, are 25-14 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI in NIT postseason play since 2021.
UAB has the better offensive efficiency (41st vs 161st) and offensive rebound percentage (7th vs 226th). The Blazers also take better care of the ball, ranking 12th in turnover percentage vs 249th for the Anteaters.
Wiseguys have quietly leaned under, as the total is being juiced 158.5 under -115. Some shops are even down to 158 or 157.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 62% of bets and 71% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 50% of bets and a hefty 94% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
