Today March Madness continues with another 4-pack of Sweet 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of NCAA Tournament matchups tonight using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
7:35 p.m. ET: Alabama vs Michigan (-9.5, 172.5)
Alabama (25-9) is the 4-seed and just destroyed Texas Tech 90-65 in the second round, cruising as 1.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, Michigan (33-3) is the 1-seed and just dominated Saint Louis 95-72 in the second round, easily covering as 12.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Michigan listed as a 10.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this roughly 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve Michigan fall from -10.5 to -9.5. Several shops are also juicing up the Alabama side (+9.5 at -115).
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect a line to move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the Crimson Tide plus the points.
At Circa, Alabama is taking in 48% of spread bets but a hefty 75% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of respected smart money out in Vegas backing the big dog to cover the number.
Ken Pom has Michigan winning by eight points (91-83), which provides an actionable edge on Alabama +9.5.
Alabama offers betting system value as a “dog who can score” system match (92 PPG), thereby increasing the chances they can keep pace or back door cover.
The Crimson Tide have the better offensive efficiency (3rd vs 6th), free-throw shooting (41st vs 95th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (10th vs 164th).
9:45 p.m. ET: Michigan State vs Connecticut (-1.5, 136.5)
Michigan State (27-7) is the 3-seed and just outlasted Louisville 77-69 in the second round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Connecticut (31-5) is the 2-seed and just brushed aside UCLA 73-57 in the second round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Huskies laying short chalk, pushing Connecticut up from -1 to -1.5. The Huskies are also being juiced up -1.5 (-115), signaling further liability in their favor, with a few shops even touching -2 or -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the side of the Huskies minus the points.
At DraftKings, Connecticut is receiving 55% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars, indicating ever-so slight public support.
However, Circa is showing the Huskies taking in 56% of spread bets but a whopping 88% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy from the wiseguys in the desert.
Those looking to protect themselves in the event of a close game may prefer to pay up and back the Huskies on the moneyline at -125.
Connecticut has the better effective field goal percentage (34th vs 66th), two-point shooting percentage (25th vs 97th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (8th vs 53rd) and force more turnovers on defense (99th vs 297th).
10:10 p.m. ET: Tennessee vs Iowa State (-4.5, 139.5)
Tennessee (24-11) is the 6-seed and just held off Virginia 79-72 in the second round, covering as 1.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Iowa State (29-7) is the 2-seed and just crushed Kentucky 82-63 in the second round, cruising as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Cyclones.
This heavy public support pushed Iowa State up from -4 to -4.5 earlier in the week. However, since that time we’ve seen sharp respected buyback on Tennessee plus the points, dropping Iowa State back down from -4.5 to -4 across the market, with a few shops even inching down to -3.5.
Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Tennessee, as the line is right back to where it opened despite the public hammering Iowa State.
Tennessee offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Volunteers are only receiving 31% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised late night game on TBS.
Ken Pom has Iowa State winning by four points (71-67). As a result, contrarians looking to go against the grain and back Tennessee would be wise to shop around and jump on a book still offering the Volunteers plus the hook (+4.5).
Tennessee has the better offensive rebound percentage (1st vs 35th), free-throw shooting (281st vs 330th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (34th vs 85th), limit their opponents to a better three-point shooting percentage (19th vs 63rd).
