Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with roughly 50 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Oakland (-2.5, 165.5) at Milwaukee
Oakland (9-9) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to Wright State 94-84 and losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Milwaukee (8-10) just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 95-83 win over IU Indianapolis, covering as 8.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Oakland listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 69% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the wood with Oakland.
This lopsided support initially pushed Oakland up from -2.5 to -3.5. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Milwaukee plus the points, dropping the line back down to Oakland -2.5.
Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze in favor of Milwaukee, as the line is right back to where it opened despite the public hammering Oakland.
Milwaukee offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Panthers are only receiving 31% of spread bets at DraftKings in a nationally televised game on ESPNU.
At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving 50% of spread bets but a hefty 67% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split signaling smart money out in the desert backing the home dog plus the points.
Ken Pom has Oakland winning by two points (86-84), which provides a slight edge to Milwaukee +2.5.
Milwaukee is 7-2 at home. Oakland is 3-7 on the road.
8 p.m. ET: Arkansas State (-3.5, 154.5) at South Alabama
Arkansas State (12-5) has won two in a row and just edged Texas State 83-82 but failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, South Alabama (12-5) has won three of their last four and just took down Georgia Southern 87-71, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have quietly sided with South Alabama plus the points, as the Jaguars are being juiced up +3.5 (-115) and some shops are even creeping down to +3. This line never rose up to -4. In other words, all movement and liability has been in favor of the home dog plus the points.
At DraftKings, South Alabama is taking in 57% of spread bets and a whopping 84% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in favor of the Jaguars.
Ken Pom has Arkansas State winning by two points (77-75), which provides a heightened edge on South Alabama +3.5.
South Alabama has the better offensive efficiency (151st vs 218th), three-point shooting (236th vs 294th) and also take better care of the ball, ranking 77th in turnover percentage committed compared to 322nd for Arkansas State.
South Alabama is allowing 67.4 PPG compared to Arkansas State giving up 78 PPG.
When two teams in the Sun Belt face off in conference play, the dog has gone 19-16 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI this season.
9 p.m. ET: Wichita State at Florida Atlanta (-4.5, 155.5)
Wichita State (10-7) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 78-67 win over North Texas, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic (11-6) has won two in a row just held off Memphis 89-78, covering as 1.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Florida Atlantic listed as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the points with Florida Atlantic, who has the slightly better record and enjoys home-court advantage.
However, despite receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Owls fall from -5.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Wichita State plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Shockers despite the public leaning toward the Owls.
At Circa, Wichita State is receiving 43% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the wiseguys in the desert backing the road dog.
Ken Pom has Florida Atlantic winning by three points (77-74), which provides actionable value on Wichita State at the current price (+4.5).
Ken Pom also has Wichita State ranked slightly higher (101st vs 102nd).
The Shockers have the superior offensive rebound percentage (8th vs 112th), three-point shooting (86th vs 109th) and limit their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (36th vs 178th).
Wichita State also does a better job of not turning it over, ranking 54th in turnover percentage committed compared to 229th for Florida Atlantic.
