Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 35 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Louisville at Tennessee (-2.5, 157.5)
Louisville (9-1, ranked 11th) has won two straight and just crushed Memphis 99-73, easily covering as 16.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tennessee (7-3, ranked 20th) has dropped three in a row and just fell to Illinois 75-62, losing outright as 1.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Louisville listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public is happy to back the Cardinals, who have the better record and ranking.
However, despite 63% of spread bets at DraftKings taking Louisville we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Tennessee, driving the Volunteers from a 1.5-point home dog to a 2.5-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Tennessee, as the line has flipped in their favor despite the public backing Louisville.
The Volunteers have notable “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value as they are only receiving 37% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the night on ESPN.
At DraftKings, Tennessee is taking in 37% of spread bets but 53% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. At Circa, the Volunteers are receiving 82% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by one point (80-79).
As a result, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Volunteers to win straight up on the moneyline at -145.
At DraftKings, Tennessee is receiving 46% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian split.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 182-74 (71%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2021.
The Volunteers have the better defensive efficiency (13th vs 35th) and offensive rebound percentage (1st vs 72nd).
Tennessee is 5-0 at home. Louisville is 0-1 on the road.
7 p.m. ET: Miami Ohio at Wright State (-1.5, 150.5)
Miami Ohio (10-0) is undefeated and just held off Eastern Kentucky 79-69, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Wright State (5-6) has dropped three of their last four and just came up short against Marshall 76-74 but managed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Wright State as a short 1-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring home court advantage, shouldn’t Miami Ohio be a clear favorite due to their stellar undefeated record?
Despite 58% of spread bets at DraftKings backing Miami Ohio we’ve seen the line move further toward Wright State, pushing the Raiders up to a 1.5-point home favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Wright State, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side.
At DraftKings, Wright State is receiving 42% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team. At Circa, Wright State is taking in 50% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars, another sharp split out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Wright State winning by one point (76-75).
With this line mind, many pros have preferred to protect themselves by playing the Raiders on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, Wright State is receiving 39% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars, a sharp discrepancy in favor of a straight up Raiders victory.
Wright State has the better defensive efficiency (139th vs 160th) and offensive rebound percentage (237th vs 303rd).
7 p.m. ET: UT Rio Grande Valley at Lamar (-3.5, 138.5)
UT Rio Grande Valley (3-6) has dropped four of their last five and just fell to UT Arlington 58-50, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Lamar (5-4) has lost two straight and just got rolled by San Diego State 89-71, failing to cover as 17.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Lamar listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Lamar laying short chalk at home, steaming the Cardinals up from -1.5 to -3.5.
This line move is especially notable considering the fact this is a tiny, low-bet “added/extra” game, which means the public has very little interest in this matchup and can barely find it on their betting app. Based on the line move, we can infer that pros have specifically targeted this matchup and gotten down on the home team.
At DraftKings, Lamar is taking in roughly 70% of spread bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from sharps in favor of the home chalk.
Ken Pom has Lamar winning by two points (69-67).
As a result, those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added cushion in the event of a close game could elect to target the Cardinals on the moneyline at -175.
Lamar has the better defensive efficiency (120th vs 154th), offensive rebound percentage (157th vs 326th) and does a better job of forcing turnovers on defense (58th vs 246th).
Lamar is 3-1 at home. UT Rio Grande Valley is 1-5 on the road.
