Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 50 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech at South Carolina (-1.5, 151.5)
Virginia Tech (6-2) started the season 6-0 but has since dropped two straight and just fell to VCU 86-68, failing to cover as 2-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, South Carolina (5-2) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 74-62 win over Charleston Southern but failed to cover as 17-point home favorites.
This line opened with South Carolina listed as a short 1-point home favorite.
The public is leaning slightly toward taking the points with the road dog Hokies.
However, despite 54% of spread bets backing Virginia Tech we’ve seen the line inch up further toward South Carolina -1 to -1.5. This signals sneaky “fade the trendy dog” smart money in favor of the unpopular home chalk.
South Carolina has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (151.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the small number.
Pros have also protected themselves by targeting the Gamecocks on the moneyline (-125).
At DraftKings, South Carolina is taking in 65% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of a straight up win for the home team.
South Carolina is 5-0 at home this season. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is playing their first true road game.
The Gamecocks have the better free throw percentage (76% vs 71%), which could prove crucial in a potentially close game.
9 p.m. ET: Connecticut (-1.5, 143.5) at Kansas
Connecticut (6-1, ranked 5th) has won two straight and just held off Illinois 74-61, easily covering as 3.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (6-2, ranked 21st) has won three in a row and just upset Tennessee 81-76, winning outright as 5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the minuscule chalk with the Huskies.
However, despite receiving 75% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Connecticut remain static at -1.5. Normally, if a team is receiving such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise up from -1.5 to -2.5 or higher. The fact that the line hasn’t budged despite the public hammering the Huskies indicates a sharp line freeze in favor of the unpopular home dog Jayhawks.
The Jayhawks are the top “bet against the public” play of the day as they are only receiving 25% of spread bets at DraftKings in one of the most heavily bet, nationally televised (ESPN2) primetime games of the night.
At Circa, the Jayhawks are taking in 67% of spread bets and a whopping 97% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy split indicating big sharp money in their favor from the pros out in Vegas.
Kansas is 3-0 at home. Meanwhile, Connecticut is playing their first true road game.
Ken Pom actually has Kansas winning this game straight up 71-70, which provides value for contrarian bettors to go the other way and grab the Jayhawks +1.5.
Kansas also has an edge at the free throw stripe (77% vs 70%), which could prove meaningful down the stretch.
9 p.m. ET: Missouri at Notre Dame (-2, 148.5)
Missouri (8-0) is undefeated on the season and just brushed aside Cleveland State 86-59 but failed to cover as 29.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Notre Dame (5-3) has rotated wins and losses over their last five games and just fell to Houston 66-56 but managed to cover as 10.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Missouri listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public is happy to back the Tigers, who have the far better won-loss record.
However, despite 58% of spread bets taking Missouri we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Notre Dame, pushing the Irish from a 1.5-point home dog to a 2-point home favorite.
In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Notre Dame at home.
At DraftKings, Notre Dame is receiving 42% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor. At Circa, the Irish are receiving 83% of spread bets and over 95% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from the sharps out in Vegas.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could elect to target the Irish on the moneyline at -140.
Favorites with a 2-point line move or more in their direction, like Notre Dame here, are 160-35 (82%) straight up with a 2% ROI this season. Short favorites -4 or less with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 57-35 (62%) straight up with a 5% ROI this season.
The Irish are 4-0 at home this season. Notre Dame also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on November 26th compared to Missouri last playing on November 28th.
