Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with 22 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Purdue at Nebraska (-1.5, 148.5)
Purdue (19-4, ranked 13th) has won two in a row and just held off Oregon 68-64 but failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Nebraska (21-2) just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 80-68 win over Rutgers but failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
While Nebraska remains a 1.5-point home favorite, a closer look at the line history shows that the Cornhuskers touched as high as -2 or even -2.5 at times. We have never seen this line get down to Nebraska -1.
Reading between the lines, all movement and liability seems to be on the side of the Cornhuskers minus the points.
At DraftKings, Nebraska is taking in 68% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Nebraska winning by three points (74-71).
With this in mind, bettors looking to gain some added cushion may prefer a Cornhuskers moneyline play at -125.
At Circa, Nebraska is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating heavy wiseguy support out in Vegas in favor of a straight up Cornhuskers victory.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite has gone 19-11 (63%) straight up this season and 194-79 (71%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2021.
Nebraska has the better defensive efficiency (11th vs 26th), free-throw shooting (38th vs 105th), turn their opponents more often on defense (67th vs 213th) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (38th vs 125th).
7 p.m. ET: North Carolina (-1.5, 157.5) at Miami
North Carolina (19-4, ranked 11th) has won five straight and just upset Duke 71-68, winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Miami (18-5) has won three of their last four and just held off Boston College 74-68 but failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 78% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Tar Heels.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen North Carolina remain stagnant at -1.5 and briefly get down to -1 or even a pick’em at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze in favor of Miami, as the line has either stayed the same or shown liability toward the Hurricanes despite the public hammering the Tar Heels.
Miami is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Hurricanes are only receiving 22% of spread bets at DraftKings in one of the most heavily bet, nationally televised primetime games of the night on ESPN.
Miami has additional buy-low value as an unpopular unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent coming off a big upset win.
Ken Pom has Miami winning the game by one point (79-78), which provides actionable value on the Hurricanes +1.5.
Miami has the better effective field goal percentage (18th vs 45th), offensive rebound percentage (22nd vs 102nd) and defensive efficiency (42nd vs 48th). The Hurricanes also do a far better job of turning their opponents over on defense (81st vs 342nd).
Miami is 12-2 at home this season. North Carolina is 3-3 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Arizona State (-2.5, 161.5)
Oklahoma State (16-7) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Arizona 84-47 and failing to cover as 20.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Arizona State (12-12) has dropped three of their last four and just came up short against Colorado 78-70, failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Arizona State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is a .500 team on a losing skid favored over a team with a far better won-loss record?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 57% of spread bets are grabbing Oklahoma State plus the points.
However, despite Oklahoma State receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen Arizona State get juiced up -2.5 (-115), with a few other shops creeping up to -3 or even -3.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Sun Devils at home as the line has shown liability in their favor despite the public backing the Cowboys.
At Circa, Arizona State is only taking in 25% of spread bets but 37% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the unpopular home chalk from the pros out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Arizona State winning by one point (83-82). With this in mind, savvy bettors looking to protect themselves may prefer a Sun Devils moneyline play at -150.
Arizona State has the better free-throw percentage (99th vs 146th), commit less turnovers on offense (124th vs 146th) and force more turnovers on defense (74th vs 155th).
Arizona State is 6-5 at home this season. Oklahoma State is 2-4 on the road.
