Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with 30 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: Michigan (-2.5, 157) at Purdue
Michigan (24-1, ranked 1st) has won ten straight and just destroyed UCLA 86-56, easily covering as 15.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Purdue (21-4, ranked 7th) has won four in a row and just brushed aside Iowa 78-57, cruising as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Michigan listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to back Michigan.
This lopsided support pushed the Wolverines up from -1.5 to -2.5.
However, now that we’ve seen the line tick up a full point we are starting to see sharp buyback on Purdue as an inflated +2.5 dog, with several shops juicing up the Boilermakers +2.5 (-115) and signaling a possible dip back down closer to the opener.
Purdue is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Boilermakers are only receiving 23% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet game of the night.
At Circa, Purdue is taking in 28% of spread bets but 42% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
Purdue is also taking in only 58% of moneyline bets but a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars at Circa, a massive sharp split in favor of the Boilermakers pulling off the upset at +130.
Ken Pom has Michigan winning by two points (78-76), which provides actionable value on Purdue plus the hook (+2.5).
Purdue has the better three-point shooting (23rd vs 91st), does a better job of not turning it over on offense (21st vs 164th) and limit their opponents to fewer offensive rebounds (18th vs 70th).
7 p.m. ET: Kent State at Bowling Green (-2.5, 151.5)
Kent State (19-7) has won two straight and just held off Ball State 75-68 but failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. Similarly, Bowling Green (16-10) has also won two in a row and just brushed aside Toledo 80-70, covering as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Bowling Green listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 60% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Kent State, who has the better won-loss record.
However, despite the public backing Kent State we’ve seen Bowling Green remain at -2.5 and even creep up to -3 or even briefly -3.5 at times across the market. This line has never gotten down to -2.
Reading between the lines, all movement and liability appears to be on the unpopular home chalk.
At DraftKings, Bowling Green is taking in 40% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars. At Circa, Bowling Green is receiving 50% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Falcons at home.
Ken Pom has Bowling Green winning by three points (77-74). He also has the Falcons ranked slightly higher (140th vs 147th) despite the Golden Flashes having the better record.
Many pros have looked to gain some added cushion and protection by playing Bowling Green on the moneyline at -150.
Bowling Green has the better defensive efficiency (89th vs 186th), force more turnovers on defense (48th vs 243rd) and allow fewer offensive rebounds (55th vs 126th).
This is a revenge spot for Bowling Green as well, as the Falcons lost to the Golden Flashes 96-93 on the road in late December.
9 p.m. ET: Nebraska at Iowa (-1.5, 139.5)
Nebraska (22-3, ranked 9th) has won two of their last three and just dominated Northwestern 68-49, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Iowa (18-7) has dropped two in a row and just got rolled by Purdue 78-57, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, shouldn’t Nebraska be favored if the Cornhuskers have the far better record and ranking?
The public sees an easy layup with Nebraska and 79% of spread bets are backing the Cornhuskers.
However, despite Nebraska receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line move further toward Iowa, pushing the Hawkeyes from a pick’em to a 1.5-point home favorite. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Iowa, as the line has moved toward the Hawkeyes despite the public hammering the Cornhuskers.
Iowa is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Hawkeyes are only receiving 21% of spread bets at DraftKings in one of the most heavily bet primetime games of the night.
At Circa, Iowa is taking in 32% of spread bets but a hefty 71% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the fishy home chalk.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Iowa on the moneyline at -130.
At Circa, the Hawkeyes are taking in 40% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy Vegas pro money banking on a straight up Iowa victory on their home court.
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents, like Iowa here, are 8-5 (62%) straight up this season and 137-75 (65%) straight up with a 5% ROI since 2020.
