Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 35 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:30 p.m. ET: Coastal Carolina (-1.5, 140.5) at Georgia State
Coastal Carolina (17-12) has won three of their last four and just outlasted Marshall 79-75, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Georgia State (10-19) has dropped seven of their last eight and just got rolled by James Madison 80-65, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
Sharps have jumped on Coastal Carolina at a coin-flip price, driving the Chanticleers up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point road favorite.
At DraftKings, Coastal Carolina is receiving 68% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” one-way bet discrepancy in favor of the road team.
Ken Pom has Coastal Carolina winning by one point (68-67). He also has the Chanticleers ranked higher (237th vs 296th).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting Coastal Carolina on the moneyline at -120.
Short road favorites -4 or less with at least a half point of line movement in their favor are 108-67 (62%) straight up with a 6% ROI this season.
Coastal Carolina has the better offensive efficiency (307th vs 330th) and defensive efficiency (136th vs 213th).
The Chanticleers also have the better three-point shooting (178th vs 316th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (14th vs 148th) and limit their opponents to far fewer offensive rebounds (48th vs 309th).
Coastal Carolina is 8-7 on the road this season, one of only three teams in the Sun Belt conference with a winning road record.
This is also a revenge play for the Chanticleers, who lost to the Panthers 89-71 on their home court back in early January.
9 p.m. ET: Miami (-2.5, 153.5) at Florida State
Miami (21-6) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Virginia 86-83 but managing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Florida State (14-13) has won three in a row and just upset Clemson 70-65, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Hurricanes laying short chalk, driving Miami up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At Circa, Miami is taking in 33% of spread bets and a whopping 83% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Miami winning by three points (81-78). He also has the Hurricanes ranked much higher (39th vs 71st).
As a result, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Miami on the moneyline at -140.
When two ACC teams face off in conference play, the road favorite has gone 36-11 (77%) straight up with a 9% ROI this season.
Miami has the better offensive efficiency (46th vs 75th) and defensive efficiency (41st vs 83rd).
The Hurricanes also have the better effective field goal percentage (32nd vs 205th), offensive rebound percentage (14th vs 159th) and three-point percentage (199th vs 281st).
This is also a revenge spot for Miami, who lost to Florida State 65-63 at home back in late January.
11 p.m. ET: New Mexico at Nevada (-1.5, 149.5)
New Mexico (21-6) has won three straight and just held off Fresno State 80-78 but failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Nevada (18-9) just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 80-77 upset win over Utah State, winning outright as 5.5-point home dogs.
This line opened as low as a pick’em.
The public says New Mexico is the better team with the better record and 56% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing the Lobos.
However, despite a majority of tickets taking New Mexico we’ve actually seen this line tick up in favor of Nevada, pushing the Wolf Pack up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point home favorite.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on Nevada, as the line has moved in their favor even though the public is coming down on the Lobos.
Ken Pom has Nevada winning by one point (76-75).
With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by playing the Wolf Pack on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, Nevada is taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 52% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of a straight up Wolf Pack victory on their home court.
When two teams from the Mountain West face off in conference play, the home favorite has gone 41-6 (87%) straight up with a 6% ROI this season.
Nevada has the better offensive rebound percentage (108th vs 225th), free-throw percentage (71st vs 122nd), three-point shooting (28th vs 49th) and do a better job of not turning it over on offense (36th vs 91st).
This is also a revenge play for Nevada, who lost to New Mexico on the road 80-73 back in late January.
