Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball action on tap with 35-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Baylor at Cincinnati (-2.5, 138.5)

Baylor (16-11) has dropped three of their last four and just came up short against Colorado 76-74, losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (16-11) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 75-63 win over TCU, covering as 7.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen Cincinnati creep up from -1.5 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Bearcats at home.

At DraftKings, Cincinnati is taking in 52% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Cincinnati winning by one point (70-69). As a result, pros may prefer to protect themselves and play Cincinnati on the moneyline (-140) instead of laying the points.

Cincinnati has the superior defensive efficiency (23rd vs 65th) and takes better care of the ball (47th in turnover percentage vs 97th). The Bearcats are also better at limiting their opponents’ effective field goal percentage (39th vs 246th) and three-point percentage (70th vs 304th).

Cincinnati is 11-4 at home this season. Baylor is 2-8 on the road.

10 p.m. ET: UNLV (-2.5, 137.5) at San Jose State

UNLV (14-13) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to Colorado State 61-53 and failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, San Jose State (13-16) just snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Wyoming 82-73 and winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with UNLV listed as a 2-point road favorite. Sharps have quietly backed the short chalk favorite, pushing UNLV up from -2 to -2.5. At DraftKings, UNLV is receiving 54% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars. At Circa, UNLV is taking in 50% of spread bets and 70% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Rebels.

Ken Pom has UNLV winning by one point (70-69). With this in mind, savvy bettors may prefer a Rebels moneyline play (-145) instead of laying the points. At Circa, UNLV is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but over 90% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp split and further evidence of pros playing the Rebels to earn a straight up victory.

UNLV has a big edge in terms of defensive efficiency (67th vs 219th). The Rebels also take better care of the ball (82nd in turnover percentage vs 130th) and are better at forcing turnovers (84th vs 235th).

San Jose State is giving up 76 PPG over their last ten games while UNLV is only allowing 65 PPG.

11 p.m. ET: New Mexico at San Diego State (-2.5, 144.5)

New Mexico (22-5) just saw their eight-game win streak come to an end, falling to Boise State 86-78 and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. Similarly, San Diego State (18-7) just saw their three-game win steak come to an end, losing to Utah State 79-71 and failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with San Diego State listed as low as a 2-point home favorite. The public is leaning toward taking the points with New Mexico, who has the better won-less record. However, despite 55% of spread bets at DraftKings supporting the Lobos, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward San Diego State -2 to -2.5. This signals some sneaky sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Aztecs at home.

Ken Pom has San Diego State winning by four points (73-69). Wiseguys have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Aztecs on the moneyline at -135. At DraftKings, San Diego State is receiving 51% of moneyline bets but a whopping 75% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on a straight up win for the home team.

San Diego State has the better defensive efficiency (10th vs 26th) and does a better job at limiting their opponents’ effective field goal percentage (5th vs 97th). The Aztecs are allowing 63 PPG compared to New Mexico giving up 72 PPG.

This is also a revenge spot for San Diego State, who lost to New Mexico 62-48 on the road back in early January.

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